【摘要】 目的：通过大样本横断面研究探讨北京市平谷区女童青春期提前的影响因素并构建其列线图模型。方法：研究对象为北京市平谷区10所中小学全年龄段女童，共1420人，将月经初潮年龄<10岁的女童纳入病例组（n=103），其余女童纳入对照组（n=1317），设计调查问卷并收集相关资料，单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选相关危险因素，并建立列线图模型。结果：Logistic回归分析结果显示体质量指数（BMI）高、母亲初潮年龄≤12岁、孕期烟草暴露、学习问题多、多动指数高、强亲密关系与女童青春期启动提前呈正相关（OR>1,P<0.05），身高年增长速度降低及运动时长增加与女童青春期启动提前呈负相关（OR<1,P<0.05）。列线图模型结果显示敏感度为0.7，校正曲线与理想曲线基本一致，受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.790。结论：母亲初潮年龄≤12岁、孕期烟草暴露，女童高BMI、学习问题多、高多动指数、强亲密关系为平谷区女童青春期启动提前的危险因素，身高年增长速度降低及运动时长增加为其保护因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To explore and analyze the influenceg factors of early onset of puberty in girls in Pinggu district of Beijing and construct a nomogram model.Methods:A total of 1420 girls aged 5-16 years from 10 schools in Pinggu district of Beijing were in the study.The girls with menarche age <10 years in the case group(n=103),and the remaining girls were included in the control group(n=1317).Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that BMI,maternal age at menarche≤12 years,tobacco exposure during materna pregnancy,learning problems,hyperactivity index,and intimate relationship were positively correlated with the risk of early puberty onset in girls(OR>1,P<0.05),while annual growth rate of height and exercise duration were negatively correlated with the risk of early puberty onset in girls(OR<1,P<0.05).The results of the nomogram model showed that the sensitivity was 0.7,the calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.790.Conclusion:BMI,maternal age at menarche ≤12 years,tobacco exposure during materna pregnancy,learning problems,high hyperactivity index,and strong intimate relationship were risk factors for early puberty onset in girls in Pinggu district of Beijing,while annual growth rate of height and exercise duration were protective factors.更多还原