【摘要】 烤烟种植对气候条件高度敏感，为合理利用气候资源、探究气候因素对烤烟生长发育的影响，本研究针对玉溪地区开展烤烟气候适宜性区域划分，旨在为烤烟种植布局优化提供科学支撑。本研究基于玉溪各乡镇常规气象观测数据及地理信息数据，结合当地独特的气候条件与烤烟产区的生产实际情况等，采用德尔菲法和客观赋权权重法结合，筛选玉溪气候适宜性评价指标并确定权重，并构建基于模糊数学的隶属函数模型，量化气候指标对烤烟适宜性的影响；借助GIS平台实现气象要素空间化，结合细网格推算模型定量估算气候适宜性评价指标值，实现玉溪地区烤烟种植适宜度的精细化气候区划。结果发现：以玉溪市市辖区为中心，烤烟种植气候最适宜区主要分布在玉溪中西部以及东北部地区；适宜种植区主要分布在玉溪中部、北部以及西南边界地区；次适宜种植区分布较为分散，玉溪各县区均有分布；不适宜种植区分布较为集中，主要分布在元江到新平河谷地带的低海拔区域和新平县西部边界地区、易门县东部、华宁县中部、玉溪市市辖区北部的高海拔区域。各区划指标细网格推算模型精度较高（空间分辨率可达到30 m×30 m），区划结果与玉溪地区烤烟种植现状吻合度较高，验证了方法的科学性与结果的实用性。本研究通过多方法融合（德尔菲法、客观赋权、模糊数学、GIS空间分析等）实现了烤烟气候适宜性的精细化区划，不仅明确了玉溪不同区域的气候适宜性等级，其结果还可为玉溪地区应对未来气候变化、优化烤烟种植区域布局提供科学决策依据，具有重要的生产指导价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flue-cured tobacco planting is highly sensitive to climatic conditions. In order to make rational use of climatic resources and explore the influence of climatic factors on the growth and development of flue-cured tobacco, this study carried out the climatic suitability regionalization of flue-cured tobacco in Yuxi area,aiming to provide scientific support for the optimization of flue-cured tobacco planting layout. Based on conventional meteorological observation data and geographic information data from towns across Yuxi, and its unique climatic conditions and the actual production situation of its tobacco-growing areas, the evaluation indicators for climatic suitability were screened and their weights were determined using the Delphi method and an objective weighting method. Membership function models for different climate indicators were established using fuzzy mathematics statistics. On the GIS platform, meteorological elements were spatialized,and a fine-grid calculation model was comprehensively applied to quantitatively estimate the values of the climatic suitability evaluation indicators, thereby achieving refined climatic zoning that reflects the suitability of flue-cured tobacco cultivation in Yuxi. The results indicated that the most suitable areas for tobacco cultivation were mainly distributed in the central-west and northeast parts of Yuxi, centered on the urban district; suitable planting areas were primarily located in the central, northern, and southwestern border regions; less suitable areas were scattered across all counties and districts of Yuxi; unsuitable areas were relatively concentrated, mainly in low-altitude areas of the Yuanjiang to Xinping river valley and the western border region of Xinping County, the east part of Yimen County, the central part of Huaning County, and the high-altitude north part of Yuxi’s urban district. The fine-grid calculation model for each zoning indicator demonstrated high accuracy, with a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m. The zoning results showed strong agreement with the current distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yuxi, providing a scientific basis for the region to respond to future climate change and optimize the layout of tobacco cultivation zones.更多还原