【摘要】 目的 分析2013—2021年安徽省合肥市肝癌流行特征并预测未来5年的发病和死亡趋势，为制定肝癌防治策略提供参考依据。方法 数据来源于合肥市肿瘤登记系统。利用Excel 2013、SAS 9.4软件对合肥市2013—2021年肝癌发病和死亡数据进行分析，计算肝癌发病率和死亡率、中标发病率和死亡率、世标发病率和死亡率、年龄别发病率和死亡率。利用Joinpoint 4.9.0.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），对发病率和死亡率变化趋势进行分析。利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测肝癌中标发病率和中标死亡率。结果 2013—2021年合肥市肝癌发病率为20.07/10万，中标发病率为12.84/10万，世标发病率为12.60/10万，居全部癌症发病第5位。肝癌死亡率为17.87/10万，中标死亡率为11.16/10万，世标死亡率为10.94/10万，居全部癌症死亡第4位。肝癌发病率和死亡率均随着年龄增长而上升，均在80～84岁组达到高峰。男性发病率和死亡率均高于女性，农村地区发病率和死亡率均高于城市地区。2013—2021年合肥市肝癌中标发病率和中标死亡率均呈下降趋势（AAPC分别为-4.52%,-3.67%,P<0.05）。GM(1,1)模型显示，2022—2026年合肥市肝癌中标发病率和中标死亡率将继续下降。结论 2013—2021年合肥市肝癌中标发病率和中标死亡率均呈下降趋势，但是男性和农村居民仍面临较高风险，应进一步加强防控。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the prevalent characteristics of liver cancer in Hefei of Anhui Province from 2013 to 2021,to predict the trend of incidence and mortality in the next 5 years,and provide the reference for formulating liver cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods The data were from Hefei Cancer Registry System.Excel 2013 and SAS 9.4 were used to analyze the incidence and mortality data of liver cancer in Hefei from 2013 to 2021. The morbidity and mortality,Chinese standard morbidity and mortality,world standard morbidity and mortality,age-specific morbidity and mortality were calculated. Software Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 was used to calculate the average annual change percentage(AAPC),the trends of morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Grey prediction model GM(1,1) was used to predict the Chinese standard morbidity and mortality of liver cancer.Results From 2013 to 2021,the morbidity of liver cancer in Hefei was 20.07/10~5,Chinese standard morbidity was 12.84/10~5,world standard morbidity was 12.60/10~5,the ranking of morbidity order in all cancers was the 5th. The mortality,Chinese standard mortality and world standard mortality of liver cancer were 17.87/10~5,11.16/10~5and 10.94/10~5,respectively;the ranking of mortality order in all cancers was the 4th. The morbidity and mortality of liver cancer increased with age,the peak of morbidity and mortality appeared in 80-84 years old group. The morbidity and mortality of liver cancer in males were higher than those in females;the morbidity and mortality of liver cancer in rural area were higher than those in urban area. From 2013 to 2021,Chinese standard morbidity and mortality of liver cancer showed downward trend(AAPC were-4.52% and-3.67%,P<0.05). GM1.1 model showed the from 2022 to 2026,Chinese standard morbidity and mortality of liver cancer showed the continuous downward trend.Conclusion From 2013 to 2021,Chinese standard morbidity and mortality of liver cancer in Hefei showed downward trend,but there were higher risks in rural area and males,and the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened.更多还原