【摘要】 按照《广东省林业碳汇碳普惠方法学（2025年修订版）》，以广州碳排放权交易中心碳交易信息披露数据、绿美广东生态建设2023年数据、2018—2022年广东省森林资源二类调查数据为基础，采用精准计量模型和大数据分析技术，对广东省不同地区的林业碳普惠潜力进行科学评估。评估结果表明：广东省林业碳普惠交易量呈整体增长、单次规模缩减趋势，2023年前交易价格总体增长，2024年有回落趋势，趋于理性；一般情况下，林地面积越大、森林质量越好，其林业碳普惠潜力也越大；通过提高森林经营管理水平和改善森林质量，可以进一步提升林业碳普惠潜力。此外，还分析了林业碳普惠项目开发目前存在的问题，并针对性地提出对策，以期为相关部门的政策制定和实施提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the Guangdong Province Forestry Carbon Sink and Carbon Benefit Methodology(2025Revised Edition), a scientific assessment of the forestry carbon inclusion potential in different regions of Guangdong Province was conducted based on data from the Guangzhou Emissions Exchange carbon trading information disclosures, the 2023 ecological construction data of Green Beauty Guangdong, and the 2018–2022second-class forest resource survey data of Guangdong Province. Precise measurement models and big data analysis techniques were employed for the evaluation. The assessment results indicated that the transaction volume of forestry carbon inclusion in Guangdong Province showed an overall increasing trend with a reduction in single transaction scale. Before 2023, the transaction price generally increased, while in 2024, it exhibited a declining trend, moving toward a more rational level. Generally, larger forest areas and higher forest quality were associated with greater forestry carbon inclusion potential. By improving forest management practices and enhancing forest quality, the forestry carbon inclusion potential could be further increased. Additionally, existing issues in the development of forestry carbon inclusion projects were analyzed, and targeted countermeasures were proposed, aiming to provide a scientific basis for policy formulation and implementation by relevant departments.更多还原