【摘要】 选取中亚地区最为重要的小麦、大麦、玉米、燕麦、水稻等5类粮食作物作为研究对象，分析1992—2021年中亚粮食的单产、总量及播种面积的变化，研究中亚地区粮食波动性的区域化差异，并借助ARIMA模型对中亚未来粮食生产量进行预测。结果表明：1)1992—2021年中亚的粮食单产、总量及播种面积整体呈先减少后增加的趋势，三者的变化区间分别为：0.79～1.96 t/hm~2、(0.14～0.37)×10~8 t、(0.14～0.23)×10~8 hm~2,粮食单产及总量在2011年达到高点，分别为：1.96 t/hm~2、0.37×10~8 t,粮食播种面积在1993年达到高点，为0.23×10~8 hm~2;2)中亚地区的粮食波动性和周期性特征主要表现为粮食产量波动频繁，波动指数的绝对值超过5%的年份占比大，波动幅度较大，平均波动周期为2～4 a,属于短期波动，以古典波动为主，增长型波动极少；3)未来几年中亚的小麦、大麦、玉米、燕麦及粮食总产量均将呈上升趋势，而水稻产量呈下降趋势，与2021年相比，到2030年中亚的小麦、大麦、玉米、燕麦分别可增产(410.15,91.6,795.26,8.91)×10~4 t,增幅分别为20.1%、31%、299.2%、37.1%,水稻可能减产15.99×10~4 t,降幅为15.5%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The production and supply of food are core components of sustainable development. Ensuring the sustainability of global food production and supply is crucial for maintaining human survival and socioeconomic stability, and it holds significant importance in advancing the “Zero Hunger” goal within the framework of global sustainable development. This paper selects the five key cereal crops, including wheat, barley, maize, oats, and rice, as the subjects of study, focusing on the Central Asian region. It analyzes the variations in yield per hectare, total production, and cultivated area for these cereals from 1992 to 2021, investigates regional disparities in food production fluctuations within Central Asia, and employs the ARIMA model to forecast future grain production in Central Asia. The results showed that: 1) From 1992 to 2021, the grain yield, total output and sown area in Central Asia showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and the three changes ranged from 0.79～1.96 t/hm~2,(0.14～0.37)×10~8 t and(0.14～0.23)×10~8 hm~2, respectively. Grain yield and total production reached their peaks in 2011 at 1.96 t/hm~2, and 0.37×10~8 t, respectively, while the cultivated grain area peaked in 1993 at 0.23×10~8 hm~2. 2) The grain volatility in Central Asia is characterized by frequent fluctuations in grain production, with a significant proportion of years experiencing fluctuations exceeding 5%. The amplitude of these fluctuations is substantial, and the average fluctuation cycle is 2-4 years, indicating a short-term cyclical pattern dominated by classical rather than growth-oriented fluctuations. 3) In the coming years, Central Asia is projected to experience an upward trend in wheat, barley, maize, and oats production, while rice production is expected to decline. Compared to the year 2021, by 2030, Central Asia’s wheat, barley, maize, and oats production is estimated to increase by(410.15, 91.6, 795.26, and 8.91)×10~4 t, respectively, representing growth rates of 20.1%, 31%, 299.2%, and 37.1%. Conversely, rice production may decrease by 15.99×10~4 t, with a decline of 15.5%.更多还原