【摘要】 科学划定流域生态修复分区并模拟各分区的用地情景，可为流域生态修复、生态风险规避和用地指标制定等国土空间相关规划方案设计提供重要支撑。以滇池流域为例，基于生态系统服务价值和生态风险测算模型、PLUS模型、GIS分析等方法，识别滇池流域生态修复分区并进行不同情景下的土地利用模拟。结果表明：1)2000—2020年，滇池流域生态系统服务价值由206.14亿元下降到192.71亿元，生态风险较高及以上区域面积占比由2000年的6.24%增长到2020年的19.30%;2)滇池流域生态修复分区空间分布呈圈层式结构，以滇池湖体为中心向外分为生态修复核心区、生态修复重要区、绿色发展区和生态修复保育区，所占用地面积分别为362.09、109.99、791.92和1 590.89 km~2;3)2030年，自然发展情景下预测滇池流域建设用地增长189.92 km~2,生态修复情景下预测建设用地增长53.75 km~2;相较于自然发展情景，生态修复情景城镇扩张速度减缓、流域生态系统服务价值高出4.34亿元。更多还原

【Abstract】 Scientific delineation of watershed ecological restoration zones and simulation of land use scenarios in each zone can provide important support for the design of land space-related planning schemes such as watershed ecological restoration, ecological risk avoidance and land use index formulation. Taking the Dianchi Lake Basin as an example, this paper identified the ecological restoration zones of the Dianchi Lake Basin and conducted land use simulations under different scenarios based on the ecosystem service value and ecological risk calculation model, PLUS model, GIS analysis and other methods. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, the ecosystem service value in the Dianchi Lake Basin decreased from 20.614 billion RMB to 19.271 billion RMB, and the proportion of areas with high ecological risk and above increased from 6.24% to 19.30%; 2) The spatial distribution of ecological restoration zones in the Dianchi Lake Basin was a circular structure. From the center of Lake Dianchi to the outside, ecological restoration zones were divided into 4 categories: the core area of ecological restoration, the important area of ecological restoration, the green development area and the ecological restoration and conservation area. The occupied area was 362.09, 109.99, 791.92, and 1 590.89 km~2, respectively; 3) Under the natural development scenario in 2030, the construction land in the Dianchi Lake Basin would increase by 189.92 km~2; under the ecological restoration scenario, the construction land would increase by 53.75 km~2, and the urban expansion rate would slow down. The ecological restoration scenario had an additional ecosystem service value of 434 million RMB in the Dianchi Lake Basin compared with the natural development scenario.更多还原