【摘要】 目前中强地震的预测研究多集中于个例分析,缺乏系统性总结与多震例归纳,难以揭示区域性震前异常的共性规律。本文基于华南地区1970—2023年期间5级及以上典型震例,综合分析震前地震活动性与地球物理异常特征,系统归纳不同震级地震的异常类型、时空分布及特征规律。研究发现,华南地区中强地震震前异常具有多指标耦合特征,不同震级所需指标数量与组合存在显著差异。其中,6级左右地震通常需满足5项及以上异常指标,重点关注3级地震增强、震群活跃及多项地球物理异常;5级左右地震在华南沿海地震带东、西两段分别表现出不同的异常指标组合,但仍需满足4项及以上异常指标,地震活动性和地球物理异常集中区域多为中强地震的发震区域。研究总结了适用于华南地区的中强地震预测特征规律,在提升地震预测的系统性、实用性与区域适应性方面提供了一定的理论支持和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Current research on the prediction of moderate to strong earthquakes is largely casespecific,lacking systematic reviews and cross-event generalizations,which hinders the identification of common precursor patterns at the regional scale.Focusing on typical earthquakes of M≥5 in South China from 1970 to 2023,this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of seismic and geophysical precursors.It systematically summarized the types,spatiotemporal distributions,and characteristic patterns of anomalies associated with different earthquake magnitudes.The results show that moderate-to-strong earthquakes in South China generally display multi-indicator coupling,with notable differences in both the number and combinations of indicators required for events of varying magnitudes.Specifically,earthquakes of approximately magnitude 6 typically involve five or more precursor indicators,with particular emphasis on the intensification of magnitude 3 seismicity,active earthquake clusters,and multiple geophysical anomalies.In contrast earthquakes,about magnitude 5 reveal distinct combinations of precursor indicators between the eastern and western segments of the South China coastal seismic belt.Nevertheless,four or more indicators are consistently required,and epicentral regions are often marked by concentrated seismic and geophysical anomalies.Overall,this study identifies characteristic precursor patterns of South China earthquakes,offering theoretical support and reference for enhancing the systematization,practicality,and regional applicability of earthquake prediction.更多还原