【摘要】 目的 分析2010—2020年安徽省合肥市和芜湖市温度对水痘发病风险的影响，为水痘防控提供依据。方法 收集2010—2020年合肥市和芜湖市每周水痘发病数据和同期气象资料。使用分布滞后非线性模型（distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM）分析不同城市温度对水痘周发病数的影响。结果 2010—2020年合肥市和芜湖市分别报告341 510例和24 913例水痘病例。在整个滞后期内，合肥市和芜湖市温度对水痘的最高RR分别为1.49和2.05，对应的温度分别为4℃和2℃。两个城市均显示出在极端低温时，滞后2周，RR最高（1.41和1.40）；而在极端高温时，滞后3周，RR最高（1.40和1.45）。合肥市与芜湖市男性的冷效应与热效应均略高于女性。合肥市冷效应（RR=2.43）和热效应（RR=1.51）分别在10～<15岁和5～<10岁年龄组最高；芜湖市冷效应（RR=2.48）和热效应（RR=1.78）分别在15～<20岁和0～<5岁年龄组最高。结论 温度是水痘发病重要影响因素，男性和年龄<20岁人群是温度较为敏感的人群。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective This study aimed to explore the effect of temperature on the risk of varicella incidence in Hefei and Wuhu City, Anhui Province, China, from 2010 to 2020, to provide basis for prevention and control of varicella. Methods Weekly data of varicella cases in Hefei and Wuhu City from 2010 to 2020, along with corresponding meteorological data, were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model assessed the city-specific relationship between temperature and varicella. Results Between 2010 and 2020, Hefei and Wuhu City reported 41 510 cases and 24 913 cases varicella, respectively. During the entire lag period, the highest relative risk(RR) of varicella associated with temperature was 1. 49 and 2. 05 in Hefei and Wuhu City, respectively, with corresponding temperatures of 4 ℃ and 2 ℃. Both cities exhibited the highest RR values(1. 41,1. 40) in extremely low temperatures,with a lag of two weeks,and the highest RR values at extremely high temperatures,with a three-week lag(1. 40,1. 45).The effects of cold and heat were slightly higher for males than females in Hefei and Wuhu City. The cold effect(RR=2. 43) and heat effect(RR=1. 51) in Hefei City were highest in the 10-<15 and 5-<10 age groups,respectively; the cold effect(RR=2. 48) and heat effect(RR=1. 78) in Wuhu City were highest in the 15-<20 and 0-<5 age groups,respectively. Conclusions Our findings show that temperature exerts a significant impact on the incidence of varicella and that males and individuals under the age of 20 years old are more sensitive to temperature changes.更多还原