【摘要】 额外性是开展碳信用额度核算和验证碳抵消项目有效性的基础。在林业碳汇额外性原则下，如何建立科学的碳基线并准确核算净碳汇量，据此确定合理的生态补偿水平，以激励林农参与林业碳汇经营，是当前深化集体林权制度改革亟待解决的现实问题。以中国南方集体林改区浙江、福建、江西3省份的杉木人工林为例，依据包含生物量等多碳库的广义Faustmann模型，在林业碳汇额外性视角下，运用蒙特卡罗模拟测度了3种碳基线情景下政府激励林农参与林业碳汇经营的生态补偿水平。研究结果表明：(1)固定碳基线、Faustmann碳基线和最大持续产量碳基线下的最优轮伐期分别为22.45 a、24.64 a和26.07 a。(2)在固定碳基线下，林农会依据利润最大化原则转向碳汇营林；而在Faustmann碳基线和最大持续产量碳基线下，政府则需根据纳入碳库的不同，一次性提供至多2 236.30元/hm~2，或每年提供至多162.76元/hm~2的生态补偿。(3)为了激励林农参与具有固定期限的林业碳汇经营，政府需要一次性提供748.83～36 624.47元/hm~2，或每年提供59.23～1 927.17元/hm~2不等的生态补偿，且最大持续产量碳基线在纳入多个碳库时提供了最低的生态补偿水平。基于研究结果，该研究提出：建立健全碳交易市场体系并对林业碳汇进行精准核算，针对不同林分和不同树种建立合理的碳基线，综合木材收益和碳汇收益制定合理的生态补偿政策，是加快提升林业碳汇能力的关键因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Additionality is the foundation for conducting carbon credit accounting and validating the effectiveness of carbon offset projects. Under the principle of forestry carbon sink additionality, establishing a scientific carbon baseline and accurately calculating net carbon sequestration have become practical issues that urgently need to be solved in deepening the reform of tenure in collective forests. These efforts serve as a basis for determining a reasonable level of ecological compensation and encouraging forest farmers to participate in forestry carbon sequestration management. This study examined Chinese fir plantations in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi provinces within the collective forest reform areas of southern China as a case study, utilizing a generalized Faustmann model incorporating multiple carbon pools such as biomass. From the perspective of forestry carbon sink additionality, the study employed Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the ecological compensation levels provided through government incentives for forest farmers to participate in forestry carbon sink management under three carbon baseline scenarios. The research results indicated that:(1) The optimal rotation periods for fixed carbon baseline, Faustmann carbon baseline, and maximum sustained yield(MSY) carbon baseline were 22.45 years, 24.64 years, and 26.07 years, respectively.(2) Under the fixed carbon baseline, forest farmers would switch to carbon sink forest management based on the principle of maximizing profits. However, under the Faustmann and MSY carbon baselines, the government would need to provide ecological compensation of up to RMB 2236.30/hm~2 on a one-time basis or RMB 162.76/hm~2 annually, depending on the inclusion of different carbon pools.(3) To encourage forest farmers to participate in forestry carbon sink management with a fixed duration, the government would need to provide ecological compensation ranging from RMB 748.83 to 36624.47/hm~2 on a one-time basis, or RMB 59.23 to 1927.17/hm~2 annually. The MSY carbon baseline would provide the lowest level of ecological compensation when included in multiple carbon pools. Based on these findings, this study suggests the following: establishing a sound carbon trading market system and ensuring accurate accounting of forestry carbon sinks, setting reasonable carbon baselines for different forest stands and tree species, and developing a reasonable ecological compensation policy that integrates timber and carbon sink revenues. These measures are critical to fully exerting the role of forestry in reducing emissions.更多还原