【摘要】 碳排放权交易政策是中国实现碳达峰碳中和目标的重要市场化减排工具，探究其是否能够提升企业低碳供应链韧性及其作用机制，对于实现环境与经济协调发展具有重要理论与实践意义。该研究以韧性特征为基础，对低碳供应链韧性进行解构，通过匹配2008—2020年中国A股上市公司上下游供应商与企业数据，运用双重差分法检验了碳排放权交易政策对企业低碳供应链韧性的影响，并从绿色关系资本视角出发，检验其在二者关系中的中介作用。研究发现：(1)碳排放权交易政策显著提高了企业低碳供应链韧性，并且低碳供应链凝聚力、复原力和抗压力均有所增强。该结果经平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、反事实检验和排除其他政策干扰等稳健性检验后仍成立。(2)碳排放权交易政策实施能够显著增加企业的绿色关系资本，进而提高企业低碳供应链韧性，并且绿色关系资本的中介作用主要体现在低碳供应链凝聚力和抗压力维度。(3)异质性分析表明，碳排放权交易政策对低碳供应链韧性的提升效果因政策设计和企业特性的不同而呈现差异性。具体而言，在采用碳配额混合分配方法的地区，碳排放权交易政策的作用更加显著；对于市场影响力较强的企业，其低碳供应链韧性提升效果更为显著。因此，建议推进碳排放权交易市场建设，强化其促进低碳供应链韧性的作用；加强绿色关系资本建设，增加企业获取绿色转型所需的资金来源；推动碳配额分配机制逐步转向更加灵活的市场化分配方式，促进碳交易市场的价格信号传递，同时实施差异化扶持政策，助力中小企业低碳供应链韧性提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon emissions trading policy is a critical market-based tool for achieving China’s goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. Understanding whether this policy enhances low-carbon supply chain resilience and its underlying mechanisms has theoretical and practical implications for advancing environmental protection and ensuring the sustainable development of the national economy. This study deconstructed low-carbon supply chain resilience based on its inherent characteristics. By matching data on the upstream and downstream suppliers of China’s A-share listed companies, the study examined the impact of carbon emissions trading policy on low-carbon supply chain resilience using the difference-in-differences(DID) method. It also explored the mediating role of green relational capital in this relationship. The results indicated that:(1) Carbon emissions trading policy improved corporate low-carbon supply chain resilience. Low-carbon supply chain cohesion, recovery capability, and resistance were all enhanced.These results remained robust under parallel trend tests, placebo tests, counterfactual analyses, and after accounting for other policy interferences.(2) The policy significantly increased green relational capital, which in turn strengthened low-carbon supply chain resilience. The mediating role of green relational capital was pronounced in the dimensions of cohesion and resistance.(3) Heterogeneity analysis showed that the policy’s effectiveness varied depending on policy design and corporate characteristics. Specifically, regions employing a mixed allocation approach for carbon allowances demonstrated stronger policy impacts, while enterprises with greater market influence exhibited more significant improvements in low-carbon supply chain resilience. The study recommends accelerating the development of carbon trading markets and enhancing their role in promoting low-carbon supply chain resilience. Efforts should be focused on strengthening green relational capital to expand corporate access to financial resources for green transformation. Additionally, transitioning toward more flexible, market-oriented carbon quota allocation methods and improving price signaling in carbon markets are crucial. Tailored support policies should also be implemented to assist small and medium-sized enterprises in bolstering their low-carbon supply chain resilience.更多还原