【摘要】 战略性矿产是能源转型、尖端技术发展的关键物质基础，全球竞争日趋激烈，美西方国家通过构建矿产联盟和技术联盟等来保障战略性矿产产业链供应链安全，可能会重塑原有的合作格局，我国资源风险进一步升高。为量化评估战略性矿产资源的全球力量分布和我国的地位，创建战略性矿产资源影响力评价指标体系，并以铜、铝、锂、钴、镍、稀土等为例，对主要战略性矿产资源竞争国和资源大国进行影响力评估。结果表明，从单一国家尺度来看，我国具有影响力优势，在资源和技术影响力上处于绝对领先地位，在资本和贸易影响力上则和美国形成“两超”格局。而如果美西方形成联盟，我国原本具有的优势地位将面临威胁，如对铜的资源影响力相较单一发达国家已无优势，贸易影响力方面全矿种大幅落后，资本影响力上仅剩对稀土的优势，技术影响力上钴、锂、镍、钕的优势能够保持，但铝大幅度落后。美西方联盟如果利用这种影响力的不平衡对我国资源获取、技术合作进行阻碍，并对战略性矿产资源进行再分配，将加剧我国战略性矿产产业链供应链脆弱性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Strategic minerals are the critical material basis for energy transition and the development of cutting-edge technologies. Global competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The United States and Western countries can ensure the security of the industrial chain and supply chain of strategic minerals by building mineral alliances and technology alliances, which may reshape the original cooperation pattern and further increase the risk of resources in China. In order to quantitatively assess the global power distribution of strategic mineral resources and China’s position, this paper establishes the strategic mineral resources influence evaluation index system, and takes copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth and other examples to evaluate the influence of major strategic mineral resources demand countries and resource suppliers. The results show that from the perspective of a single country, China has the advantage of influence, taking an absolute leading position in the influence of resources and technology, and forming a “double superiority” pattern with the United States in the influence of capital and trade. If the United States and the West form an alliance, China’s original advantageous position will face threats, such as the resource influence of copper compared to a single developed country has no advantage, the trade influence of all minerals is greatly behind, the capital influence is only the advantage of rare earth, the technological influence of cobalt, lithium, nickel, neodymium advantages can be maintained, but aluminum is greatly behind. If the US-Western alliance uses this imbalance of influence to hinder China’s resource acquisition and technical cooperation, and redistribute strategic mineral resources, it will exacerbate the vulnerability of China’s strategic mineral industrial chain and supply chain.更多还原