【摘要】 针对不同大小冲击对系统造成的影响不同以及冲击在持续时间下对系统可靠度和剩余寿命预测精度的影响问题，提出一种考虑分区持续时间冲击的系统可靠性分析与剩余寿命预测模型。其中随机冲击的到达遵循齐次泊松过程，冲击根据其幅值分为四个区域，即安全区、概率损伤区、损伤区和致命区，采用自适应核密度的非参数估计方法对系统自然退化过程建模，在自然退化和冲击随机相关性研究的基础上对系统进行可靠性分析和剩余寿命预测，最后通过数值试验和C-MAPSS数据集验证了所提模型的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Here, aiming at problems of different effects of different-sized impacts on a system and effects of duration impact on system reliability and remaining life prediction accuracy, a system reliability analysis and remaining life prediction model was proposed considering partition duration impact. The arrival of random impact obeys a homogeneous Poisson process, and according to its amplitude impact was divided into 4 regions of safe zone, probability damage zone, damage zone and fatal zone. The adaptive kernel density non-parametric estimation method was used to model the natural degradation process of a system. Based on studying the random correlation between natural degradation and impact, the reliability analysis and remaining life prediction of the system were performed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model was verified with numerical experiments and C-MAPSS dataset.更多还原