【摘要】 目的:探究我国基本医疗保险和商业健康保险耦合协调度的时空演变特征，分析耦合协调度的影响因素，为推进两险协调发展提供参考。方法:基于《中国统计年鉴》《中国保险年鉴》等数据，通过耦合协调度模型测度2015-2022年全国和各省份基本医疗保险及商业健康保险的耦合协调度，利用空间自相关模型和空间杜宾模型揭示空间关联特性和影响因素。结果:2015-2022年间，我国基本医疗保险和商业健康保险的耦合协调度从0.327提高至0.682;基本医疗保险与商业健康保险的耦合协调度呈现空间相关性和“东高西低”的发展格局；居民支付能力(P<0.01)、教育认知水平(P=0.04)和政府支持(P=0.01)会对基本医疗保险和商业健康保险的耦合协调发展产生显著影响。结论:我国基本医疗保险和商业健康保险耦合协调程度有所提升，存在空间异质性和空间溢出效应。应优化顶层设计，以技术赋能发展；推动区域合作，因地制宜制定发展策略；在教育、经济和政府支持领域继续发力，推动基本医疗保险和商业健康保险的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance in China and analyze the influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree, so as to provide reference for promoting the coordinated development of them. Methods: The public data such as the China statistical yearbook and the China insurance yearbook were collected to measure the coupling coordination of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance in China and all provinces through a coupling coordination degree model during 2015-2022. Spatial autocorrelation model and spatial Durbin model were used to reveal the spatial correlation characteristics and influencing factors. Results: During 2015-2022, the coupling coordination degree of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance increased from 0.327 to 0.682. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems presented a spatial correlation and a development pattern of "high in the east and low in the west". Residents’ ability to pay(P<0.01), education awareness(P=0.04), and government support(P=0.01) had a significant impact on the coupled and coordinated development of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance. Conclusion: The coupling coordination degree of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance in China has improved, and there is spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effect. The top-level design should be optimized and the development should be enabled by technology. It is recommended to promote regional cooperation and formulate development strategies in light of local conditions, and continue to make efforts in the fields of education, economy and government investment to promote the coordinated development of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance.更多还原