【摘要】 为评估气候变化对云南大理茶潜在适生区的影响，并预测其在不同温室气体排放情景下的适生区域变化。以气候、土壤、地形等为关键环境因子，运用MaxEnt模型评估气候变化对云南大理茶潜在适生区的影响，并预测其在4种温室气体排放情景下(SSP 2.6、SSP 4.5、SSP 7.0、SSP 8.5)适生区域变化，评估其质心转移特点。结果显示：大理茶的潜在分布区在不同气候变化情景下呈现收缩趋势，适生区面积减少6.70%至41.75%,高适生区面积减少尤为明显。主导环境因子分析表明：气候因子中的温度季节性和最干月份降雨量对大理茶的分布影响最大。当前气候条件下，大理茶的适生区主要集中在云南省的西南部，而未来气候条件下，适生区将向东南方向迁移。气候变化对大理茶的适生区分布有显著影响，可能导致物种灭绝风险增加和茶叶产业受损。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential suitable habitat of Camellia taliensis(Yunnan Dali tea)and predict changes in its suitable habitat under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.By selecting key environmental factors such as climate, soil, and terrain, this study utilizes the MaxEnt model to assess the influence of climate change on the potential suitable habitat of C.taliensis and forecasts alterations in its suitable habitat under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SSP2.6,SSP4.5,SSP7.0,SSP8.5).Additionally, the study assesses the characteristics of centroid shifts within these habitats.The model predictions indicate a contracting trend in the potential distribution range of C.taliensis under different climate change scenarios, with the suitable habitat area decreasing by 6.70% to 41.75%.Notably, the reduction in highly suitable habitat areas is particularly pronounced.The analysis of dominant environmental factors reveals that temperature seasonality and precipitation in the driest month among climatic factors have the most significant impact on the distribution of C.taliensis.Under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat for C.taliensis is concentrated mainly in southwestern Yunnan Province.However, under future climatic conditions, the suitable habitat is projected to shift southeastwards.Climate change has a notable influence on the distribution of suitable habitats for C.taliensis,potentially leading to increased species extinction risk and detrimental effects on the tea industry.更多还原