【摘要】 【目的】探究中国粮食新质生产力发展水平的时空格局、区域差异与演变趋势，对于强化国家粮食安全保障具有重要意义。【方法】基于2012—2022年中国省际面板数据，从科技生产力、绿色生产力和数字生产力3个维度构建粮食新质生产力指标体系，综合运用标准差椭圆、空间自相关、核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数分解和Markov链等方法，揭示中国粮食新质生产力发展水平的时空格局、区域差异及演变趋势。【结果】(1)研究期内，中国粮食新质生产力平均发展水平总体提升34.18%，呈“东高西低、南高北低”的空间分异格局，高值区持续集聚于胡焕庸线东南侧的中东部省份。(2)区域差异分析表明，三大粮食功能区的差异强度呈“主销区>主产区>产销平衡区”的梯度排列。总体差异主要由主销区与产销平衡区间的组间差异所贡献。(3)动态演进特征显示，中国粮食新质生产力的发展呈“高端稳固、中间浮动、低端徘徊”的特点，低水平地区易受高值区“正向溢出效应”的影响，从而为突破“低位陷阱”提供潜在动力。【结论】完善粮食主产区利益补偿机制，健全粮食价格支持政策体系，强化粮食科技推广与服务体系建设，以推动粮食新质生产力的区域协同发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern,regional disparities,and evolutionary trends of China’s new-quality productivity in grain production is of great significance for strengthening national food security．【Method】Based on provincial panel data for China for2012-2022,we constructed an index system of new-quality productivity in grain production along three dimensions: technological productivity,green productivity and digital productivity and using the standard deviational ellipse,spatial autocorrelation,kernel density estimation,Dagum gini coefficient decomposition,and Markov chain methods,revealed the spatiotemporal pattern,regional disparities and evolutionary trends in China’s development level of new-quality productivity in grain production．【Result】( i) During the study period,the average development level increased by 34. 18%,exhibiting a spatial differentiation of‘higher in the east than the west,and higher in the south than the north’; High-value clusters remained concentrated in the middle-eastern provinces southeast of the Hu Huanyong line.( ii) Regional-difference analysis indicated that the intensity of disparities across the three major grain functional zones followed a gradient of‘main sales areas> main production areas > production-marketing balanced areas’; Overall disparities were chiefly driven by between-group differences between the main sales areas and the balanced areas.( iii) Dynamic evolution displayed a pattern of‘stable at the high end,fluctuating in the middle,lingering at the low end’; Low-level regions were susceptible to positive spillover effects from high-value areas,providing potential impetus to escape the low-level trap．【Conclusion】Improving the benefit-compensation mechanism for major grain-producing areas,strengthening the price-support policy system,and consolidating the grain science-and-technology extension and service system can promote regionally coordinated development of new-quality productivity in grain production.更多还原