【摘要】 【目的】预测气候变化背景下药用植物白及(Bletilla striata)在中国的适生区分布，为白及人工种植选址提供科学依据。【方法】基于标本数据库获得白及在中国的自然分布点520个，结合19个环境因子(bio1～bio19),利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)分析未来(2030年与2070年)2种气候变化情景下(SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5)白及在中国的适生区及主要影响因素。【结果】白及适生区主要分布在中国南方地区，包括贵州、四川、重庆、云南、湖南、湖北、江西、广西、广东、浙江与上海等地，占全国总面积的25.03%,其中高适生区主要分布在四川、贵州、重庆、湖南与湖北；年降水量(bio12)、最干月降水量(bio14)、最冷月最低温(bio6)与气温年较差(bio7)是影响白及自然分布的主要环境因子。在SSP1-2.6气候变化情景下，白及在中国的适生区面积变化不大；然而，在SSP5-8.5气候变化情景下，预测白及在中国的适生区将大幅减少，特别是云南西部及广东、福建大部分地区将不再适宜白及生长。【结论】白及适生区主要分布在中国南方地区，高温室气体排放导致的气候变化将导致白及适生区收缩，在区域种植规划与田间栽培选址中需要引起注意。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】 The study aimed to predict the suitable growth areas of medicinal plant Bletilla striata in China under climate change, and to provide scientific basis for site selection in artificial cultivation.【Method】 Based on the 520 natural distribution records of B.striata obtained from online specimen database, and combined with 19 environmental factors, Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS) were used to analyze the suitable growth areas of B.striata in China, as well as the main influencing factors under two climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) at 2030 and 2070.【Result】 The suitable growth areas of B.striata were mainly distributed in Southern China, including Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Hunan Hubei, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai.These areas accounted for approximately 25.03% of the total area of China, among which the high suitable areas were mainly distributed in Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Hunan and Hubei.Annual precipitation(bio12),precipitation of driest month(bio14),min temperature of coldest month(bio6) and temperature annual range(bio7) were the main environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of B.striata. Under the SSP1-2.6 climate change scenario, there was little change in the suitable growth areas; However, under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, it was predicted that the suitable growth areas of B.striata in China would be contracted, especially in Western Yunnan and most areas of Guangdong and Fujian, which would no longer be suitable for the growth of B.striata.【Conclusion】 The suitable growth areas for B.striata are mainly distributed in Southern China.Climate change caused by high greenhouse gas emission will lead to a contraction of the suitable growth areas, necessitating attention to the regional planning and site selection for the cultivation of B.striata.更多还原