【摘要】 目的 了解2019—2023年宁夏居民慢性病的死亡水平及变化趋势，为制定慢性病防控策略提供理论参考。方法 采用R 4.2.1、Excel 2010、JoinPoint 5.0.2软件分析宁夏2019—2023年死因监测数据，计算慢性病的粗死亡率、标准化死亡率、年均年度变化百分比（AAPC）等指标，分析其变化趋势。结果 2019—2023年宁夏居民慢性病的死亡占总死亡的83.60%，粗死亡率469.14/10万，标准化死亡率从2019年的584.70/10万下降至2023年的492.13/10万，AAPC为-4.31%，呈下降趋势（P<0.05）；主要慢性病死因中，心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病和消化系统疾病位居前列。构建ARIMA(1,0,1)模型，预测2024年慢性病死亡人数为32 420人。结论 尽管宁夏慢性病标准化死亡率呈下降趋势，但总体慢性病的患者死亡数量则呈现增高趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To understand the mortality levels and trends of chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs)among residents in Ningxia from 2019 to 2023,and to provide a reference for formulating strategies for the prevention and control of NCDs. Methods R 4.2.1,Excel 2010,and Joint Point 5.0.2 software were used to analyze the mortality monitoring data in Ningxia from 2019 to 2023,indicators such as the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,and annual percentage change(AAPC)for NCDs were calculated,and their trends were analyzed. Results From 2019 to 2023,NCDs accounted for 83.60% of total deaths among Ningxia residents. The crude mortality rates of NCDs were 469.14/10~5,and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 584.70/10~5in 2019 to 492.13/10~5in 2023,with an AAPC of-4.31%,showing a declining trend(P<0.05). The leading causes of death due to NCDs were cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases,diabetes,and digestive system diseases. An ARIMA(1,0,1)model was constructed,predicting 32 420 NCDs deaths in 2024. Conclusion Although the standardized mortality rate for NCDs in Ningxia is decreasing,the overall number of deaths from NCDs is increasing.更多还原