【摘要】 为了在降雨型滑坡等地质灾害监测预警中充分考虑水对斜坡稳定性的影响，以陕西省地质灾害为研究对象，采用基于历史灾害和土壤含水率监测数据的统计分析、基于无限边坡模型和非饱和强度理论的降雨型滑坡稳定性分析2种方式，建立土壤含水率监测预警模型，讨论应用的可行性。结果表明:通过历史数据的统计分析得到陕北-关中地区土壤含水率监测预警阈值范围为12%～40%，陕南地区为24%～45%，同一预警等级时，陕南地区临界阈值范围高于陕北和关中地区，根据统计分析提出了陕北、关中及陕南地区地质灾害土壤含水率预警阈值建议;此外，以陕北黄土滑坡为例进行边坡稳定性分析，发现土壤含水率越高、湿润锋深度越大、斜坡坡度越大，斜坡的稳定性系数就越低，据此提出了黄土地区不同湿润锋深度和斜坡坡度的地质灾害土壤含水率分级预警阈值。研究成果能够为陕西省地质灾害监测预警提供数据参考，对水致地质灾害的预防具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to fully consider the impact of water on slope stability in monitoring and early warning of geological disasters such as landslides induced by rainfall,this article took geological disasters in Shaanxi Province as the research object,and adopted two methods: statistical analysis based on historical disaster and soil moisture monitoring data,and stability analysis of rainfall type landslides based on infinite slope model and unsaturated strength theory. A soil moisture monitoring and early warning model was established,and the feasibility of its application is discussed. The results show that: Through statistical analysis of historical data,the threshold range for soil moisture monitoring and warning in northern Shaanxi and Guanzhong regions is 12% ～ 40%,while in southern Shaanxi it is 24% ～ 45%. At the same warning level, the critical threshold range in southern Shaanxi is higher than that in northern Shaanxi and Guanzhong regions. Based on statistical analysis, we proposed a suggestion for warning thresholds of soil moisture content for geological hazards in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong,and southern Shaanxi. In addition,taking the loess landslide in northern Shaanxi as an example for slope stability analysis,it is found that the higher the soil moisture content,the greater the depth of the wetting front,and the greater the slope gradient,the lower the stability coefficient of the slope. Based on this,we proposed grading warning thresholds of soil moisture content for different wetting front depths and slope gradients for geological hazard in loess areas. This research result can provide data reference for the monitoring and early warning of geological disasters in Shaanxi Province,and has significant implications for the prevention of geological disasters induced by water.更多还原