【摘要】 目的 探讨亚热带湿润气候下中国西南某盆地城市中不同组别的相对湿度、温度、大气污染物及其交互作用对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响及滞后效应。方法 收集2018—2022年中国西南某市逐日的气象、空气污染物和居民呼吸系统死亡的资料，采用准泊松分布的分布滞后非线性模型（distributed lag-wise nonlinear model,DLNM）和广义加性模型（generalized additive model,GAM）进行时间序列分析。结果 该市呼吸系统疾病累积死亡11 779人。在lag15时，SO₂浓度每升高10 ug/m³对人群呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响最大，RR=1.055（95%CI:0.993～1.120）。单因素分组滞后模型中，极高温组(≥P₉₅)中温度每上升1℃对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响在lag0时最大,为1.710（95%CI:1.209～2.418）。多因素模型中，以SO₂,NO₂为协同因素时，相对湿度对呼吸系统死亡影响在lag18时最大，为1.026（95%CI:1.000～1.053），温度对死亡的RR在lag0时最大，为1.024（95%CI:1.010～1.038）。交互作用显示：相对湿度、温度与各污染物均存在交互作用，60%～80%的湿度水平与SO₂、NO₂交互产生的死亡风险最大。结论 各因素对呼吸系统疾病死亡存在独立影响和滞后效应。不同湿度水平与污染物交互作用对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响不同且可能存在协同或拮抗效应，其中中等湿度水平与污染物交互产生的死亡风险最大,高湿度与污染物交互产生的影响反而降低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the influence and lag effects of different groups of relative humidity, temperature, atmospheric pollutants and their interactions on respiratory disease mortality in a basin city in southwest China under a subtropical humid climate. Methods Daily meteorological, air pollutant and respiratory-related mortality data of residents in a city in southwest China from 2018 to 2022 were collected, and time-series analysis was carried out using the distributed lag-wise nonlinear model（DLNM） with quasi-Poisson distribution and the generalized additive model（GAM）. Results A total of 11 779 people died of respiratory diseases in this city. At lag15, when the SO₂ concentration increased by 10 μg/m³, the impact on the respiratory disease mortality of the population was the greatest, with RR=1.055（95%CI: 0.993-1.120）. In the single-factor grouped lag model, in the extremely high-temperature group(≥P₉₅), when the temperature increased by 1 ℃, the impact on respiratory disease mortality was the greatest at lag0, which was 1.710（95%CI: 1.209-2.418）. In the multi-factor model, when SO₂ and NO₂ were taken as synergistic factors, the impact of relative humidity on respiratory mortality was the greatest at lag18, which was1.026（95%CI: 1.000-1.053）, and the RR of temperature on mortality was the greatest at lag0, which was 1.024（95%CI: 1.010-1.038）. Interaction analysis showed that there were interactions among relative humidity, temperature and various pollutants,and the mortality risk generated by the interaction between 60%-80% humidity level and SO₂ and NO₂ was the greatest.Conclusion Each factor has an independent influence and lag effect on respiratory disease mortality. The interactions between different humidity levels and pollutants have different impacts on respiratory disease mortality and may have synergistic or antagonistic effects. Among them, the mortality risk generated by the interaction between medium humidity level and pollutants is the greatest, while the impact generated by the interaction between high humidity and pollutants is instead reduced.更多还原