【摘要】 提升牧户减畜意愿对草原生态保护政策的有效实施具有至关重要的作用。文章基于计划行为理论框架，以内蒙古自治区赤峰市5个牧业旗县412户牧户的微观数据为基础，运用结构方程模型，深入分析牧户的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制对其减畜意愿的影响。结果表明：牧户的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制均对牧户减畜意愿有显著的正向影响；行为态度对牧户减畜意愿的影响大于知觉行为控制和主观规范；知觉行为控制对于减畜意愿的影响大于主观规范；行为态度、主观规范与知觉行为控制三者之间存在相互作用关系。多群组分析结果显示，草场面积在不同路径中对减畜意愿的影响未产生调节作用，但在不同群组中的作用存在差异。据此，提出加强政策宣传，提高草原保护意识；优化补贴政策，激励牧户采取减畜行为；加强技术培训，拓宽牧户收入渠道；健全监管制度，筑牢生态安全屏障等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The enhancement of herders′ willingness to reduce livestock plays a crucial role in the effective implementation of grassland ecological protection policies. Based on planned behavior theory,this article used the micro-data of 412 herders in 5 pastoral banners and counties of Chifeng City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and employed a structural equation model to deeply analyze the influence of herders′ behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on their willingness to reduce livestock. The results showed that, herders′ behavioral attitudes, subjective norms,and perceived behavioral control all had a significant positive impact on herders′ willingness to reduce livestock. The impact of behavioral attitudes on herders′ willingness to reduce livestock was greater than perceived behavioral control and subjective norms. The impact of perceived behavioral control on herders′ willingness to reduce livestock was greater than subjective norms. There was an interactive relationship among behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. The results of multi-group analysis showed that, the grassland area did not have a moderating effect on the influence of different paths on herders′ willingness to reduce livestock, but its role varied among different groups.Accordingly, suggestions are put forward, including strengthening policy promotion to improve grassland protection awareness, optimizing subsidy policies to incentivize herders′ livestock reduction behavior,strengthening technical training to broaden their income channels, and improving the supervision system to build a solid ecological security barrier.更多还原