【摘要】 生态农业建设是生态文明建设的重要组成部分。文章构建了2005—2022年浙江生态农业发展水平指标评价体系，分为3个维度（生态效益、经济效益、社会效益），利用熵值法测度其发展水平，并通过灰色模型GM(1,1)，预测浙江省生态农业综合效益2025—2034年的发展趋势。结果表明：2005—2022年浙江省生态农业综合效益发展呈稳步上升趋势，但中间有曲折，说明浙江省生态农业近年来发展势态良好，取得了较好成绩。生态效益、经济效益、社会效益3个维度各有自己的发展特点。2012年后生态效益和社会效益总体上呈上升趋势，但经济效益呈逐年微降趋势。预测结果显示，2025—2034年浙江省生态农业综合效益将持续稳步上升。因此，对于好的做法和经验应继续保持并发扬光大；同时，对于经济效益下滑的趋势应予以重视，需设法提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction of ecological agriculture is a vital component of ecological civilization construction. The article constructed an evaluation system of indicators for the development level of Zhejiang Province ecological agriculture from 2005 to 2022, which was divided into three dimensions(ecological benefit, economic benefit and social benefit), the entropy value method was used to measure its development level, and the grey model GM(1,1)was used to predict the development trend of comprehensive ecological agricultural benefits in Zhejiang Province from 2025 to 2034. The results indicate that: The development of comprehensive benefits of Zhejiang Province ecological agriculture from 2005 to 2022 showed a steady upward trend, but there were twists and turns in the middle,indicating that Zhejiang Province ecological agriculture developed well in recent years and made good achievements. The three dimensions of ecological benefit, economic benefit and social benefit each possessed their own development characteristics. The ecological and social benefits were generally on the rise after 2012, but the economic benefits showed a slight decline year by year. The prediction results showes that the comprehensive benefits of ecological agriculture in Zhejiang Province would continue to rise steadily from 2025 to 2034. Therefore, it is essential to maintain and promote successful practices and experiences, while paying attention to the declining trend in economic benefits and finding ways to enhance them.更多还原