【摘要】 为揭示未来水资源变化对引滦入津工程的影响，基于地理空间与水文气象数据，构建了滦河潘家口水库控制流域的SWAT模型。选取4个单项指标和1个综合指标对采用的8个GCMs逐站点进行适用性评估，并依据评估结果进行加权多模式集合，以改进的Delta-DCSI对气象数据进行降尺度及偏差校正，同时保留了其趋势信号，将修正后的气象数据用于驱动SWAT模型，对未来情景下水资源变化情况进行了模拟预测。结果表明：构建的SWAT模型适用性良好，模式优选后的多模式集合数据精度能够满足驱动SWAT模型进行未来水资源变化预估的要求；未来3种气候情景下径流量年际间变化剧烈，波动起伏较大，总体呈现增大趋势；与1997—2022年相比，潘家口水库入库径流量在未来时期显著增大，流域内水量丰沛，天津市对引滦水量依赖性下降。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reveal the impact of future water resources changes on the Luan-Tianjin Water Diversion Project, we constructed a SWAT model for the Panjiakou Reservoir-controlled watershed in the Luanhe River Basin based on geospatial and hydrometeorological data. Four single indicators and one comprehensive indicator were selected to evaluate the applicability of the selected eight global climate models(GCMs) on a station-by-station basis, and a weighted multi-mode data set was assembled based on the evaluation results. Subsequently, the improved Delta-DCSI was used to downscale and correct the meteorological data, while retaining its trend signal. The corrected meteorological data was then used to drive the SWAT model, so as to predict the water resources changes in the future scenario. The results show that the proposed SWAT model has good applicability, and the accuracy of the multi-mode ensemble data after model optimization can meet the requirements of the SWAT model for future prediction. In the future, the interannual variation of runoff in the three climate scenarios will be dramatic with great fluctuations, showing an overall increasing trend. Compared to 1997-2022, the inflow runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir will increase significantly in the future, providing abundant water for the basin. As a result, the water demand of Tianjin from Luanhe River water diversion will decrease.更多还原