【摘要】 针对城市防洪风险管理的迫切需求，基于灾害学理论从承灾体、孕灾环境和致灾因子3个因素选取评估指标，构建洪水风险一体化评估体系，耦合AHP-CRITIC计算指标综合权重，利用灰色关联分析方法计算各单元的洪水风险度，并通过自然断点法进行等级划分，以三亚市主城区为研究对象，建立洪水风险评估模型，进行洪水风险等级区划。结果表明：三亚市主城区洪水风险由极高至低风险4个等级的区域面积占比分别为5.60%、13.84%、33.04%和47.52%,其中极高风险和高风险区主要分布于三亚河和三亚东河下游沿岸地区以及汤他水下游两岸地势低平的连片耕地区域；对比证明基于AHP-CRITIC-GRA的洪水风险评估模型优于单一模型方法，洪水风险分布评估结果更为合理。研究结果与洪水风险评估模型可为三亚市及其他类似城市的防洪减灾规划提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view of the urgent needs of urban flood control risk management, indicators from aspects of hazard-affected bodies, hazard-forming environments, and hazard-inducing factors are selected to construct an integrated flood risk assessment system based on disaster theory. Then, the AHP-CRITIC method is coupled to calculate the comprehensive weight of each indicator, the grey relational analysis method is used to calculate the flood risk of each unit, and the natural breakpoint method is adopted to classify the risk levels. Taking the main urban region of Sanya City as the research object, a flood risk assessment model is established to carry out the flood risk level zoning. The results show that the proportion of areas with four levels of flood risk from extremely high to low in the main urban region of Sanya City is 5.60%, 13.84%, 33.04% and 47.52%, respectively. The extremely high-risk and high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Sanya River and the East River of Sanya, as well as the low-lying contiguous cultivated land on both sides of the lower reaches of the Tangta River. The comparison analysis proves that the flood risk assessment model based on AHP-CRITIC-grey relational analysis is superior to any individual model, which can provide a more reasonable distribution of flood risks. The research results and flood risk assessment model can provide a reference for flood control and disaster reduction planning of Sanya City and other cities facing similar problems.更多还原