【摘要】 近年来，上海合作组织着力推动支付体系的独立性与安全性建设，旨在降低对西方金融网络的依赖、提高区域经济抗风险能力。研究表明，上合组织内部的本币结算需求持续上升，中俄、俄印等双边贸易已初步展现“去美元化”趋势，但受金融发展水平与监管制度差异、地缘政治不确定性与外部制裁压力的多重制约，构建覆盖全区域的统一多边支付网络尚存较大难度。情景模拟设定“维持现状”“渐进优化”“强力突破”三种路径，对贸易、金融和投资的影响进行比较后发现，渐进改革有助于显著提升本币结算效率并增强区域合作稳固性，而强力突破虽具潜在高收益，却对政治互信与共同规制的要求更为严苛。基于此，上合组织近期应夯实本币结算与支付标准化基础，中期探索设立区域清算平台和多边开发金融机构，远期则可审慎考虑更高层次的货币协作或数字货币互通，以稳步推进支付体系合作水平并提升其在全球金融体系中的自主地位。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has focused on promoting the independence and security of the payment system,aiming to reduce dependence on Western financial networks and enhance regional economic resilience.Research has shown that the demand for local currency settlement within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization continues to rise,and China-Russia trade and Russia-India trade have shown the preliminary trend of "de-dollarization".However,under the multiple constraints of differences in financial development levels and regulatory systems,geopolitical uncertainty,and external sanctions pressure,it is still difficult to build a unified multilateral payment network covering the entire region.The scenario simulation sets three paths: "maintaining the status quo", "gradual optimization",and "strong breakthrough".After comparing the impacts on trade,finance,and investment,it is found that gradual reform can significantly improve the efficiency of local currency settlement and enhance the stability of regional cooperation.However,although strong breakthrough has potential high returns,it requires more stringent political trust and common regulation.Based on this,the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should consolidate the foundation of local currency settlement and payment standardization in the near future,explore the establishment of regional clearing platforms and multilateral development financial institutions in the medium term,and cautiously consider higher-level currency cooperation or digital currency interoperability in the long term,in order to steadily promote the level of payment system cooperation and enhance its independent position in the global financial system.更多还原