【摘要】 为探究电力系统的地震失效概率，提出了一种结合易损性分析方法和潮流分析法的功能损失评估方法。该方法首先从结构功能和供电功能两个维度定义了电力系统的功能函数，通过专家调查问卷，利用层次分析法确定了功能函数中各子系统的重要性系数以及各子系统中结构功能与供电功能的分项加权系数。然后以建筑场地设防烈度对应的峰值地震动加速度(PGA)替代了传统研究地震风险的概率分析方法，并应用《城市工程系统抗震韧性评价导则》中所提供的电力系统基础设施元件在4种极限损坏状态下的易损性曲线，对电力系统震后剩余功能进行了评估。最后考虑到电力系统前序元件的供电功能失效会影响后序元件的正常工作(级联故障),利用潮流分析方法和蒙特卡洛模拟方法，以带有7个负荷的小型电力系统为例，研究了其震后元件及系统的失效概率。结果表明：当PGA大于0.2g(g为重力加速度)后，考虑电力系统元件间级联故障的潮流分析方法和利用易损性曲线估算方法的分析结果逐渐分离，前者失效概率更高，且剩余功能更少，因此在开展电力系统整体功能评估时，非常有必要考虑元件间的级联关系；结合易损性曲线方法和潮流分析法能够宏观评估复杂电力系统的失效概率，并且此方法可以很便利地应用到城市电力系统中，是研究电力系统韧性的一种有效方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the seismic failure probability of power system, a function loss assessment method combining vulnerability analysis method and power flow analysis method was proposed. Firstly, the function of the power system was defined from two dimensions, including structural function and power supply function. Through the expert questionnaire, the importance coefficient of each subsystem and the partial weighting coefficient of the structural function and power supply function in each subsystem were determined. Then, the traditional probability analysis of seismic risk was replaced by the peak ground acceleration(PGA) corresponding to the fortification intensity of the construction site. The residual function of power system after earthquake was estimated using the fragility curves of power system infrastructure components under four limit damage states given in manual “Guidelines for Seismic Toughness Evaluation of Urban Engineering Systems”. Finally, considering the failure of the power supply function of the preceding components will affect the normal operation of the following components(cascading failure), the failure probability of the components and systems after the earthquake was studied by using the power flow analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method taking a small power system with seven loads as an example. The results show that when PGA is greater than 0.2g(g is acceleration of gravity), the analysis results of the power flow analysis method considering cascading failures between power system components and the fragility curve estimation method are gradually separated, and the former has a higher failure probability and less residual functions. It is necessary to consider the coupling relationship between components when evaluating the overall function of power system. The combination of fragility curve method and power flow analysis method can macroscopically evaluate the failure probability of complex power system, and this method can be conveniently applied to urban power system, which is an effective method to study the resilience of power system.更多还原