【摘要】 自特朗普二次执政以来，美国对外战略的走向很大程度上是由其独特的人格特质、政策偏好与战略行为风格所塑造。特朗普展现出极强的自恋特质和对外部约束的抵触倾向，而其战略行为则体现出一种“理性的非理性”逻辑，他所追求的“不可预测性”实则建立于其鲜明个性与战略声誉基础之上。特朗普的谈判策略与信息表达方式同样融合了个性、直觉与声誉因素，结合了人格与理性层面的双重特质。此外，特朗普偏好个性化的战略行为方式如首脑外交，也体现出战略需求与个性化倾向的双重导向特征。这些战略心理与行为特点，决定了其执政风格的独特性以及一定程度的“无序”,而这背后则隐藏着可被解析的策略性理性逻辑。虽然特朗普的外交政策是“反传统”的，但也有一定的社会基础，且部分根植于美国历史上延续至今的诸多政策传统。特朗普人格特质对美国对外战略的政治影响，一方面受制于权力结构与制度设计等宏观因素，另一方面则取决于其人格和政策偏好与美国国内政治现实与社会共识之间的匹配程度。未来，在实施“挑战传统”的对外政策过程中，特朗普如何应对所面临的多重政治压力，将决定他的政治心理特质能否持续主导美国外交的走向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Trump’s second term, the evolution of U.S. foreign policy has been largely shaped by his distinctive personality traits, policy preferences, and strategic behavioral style. Trump’s personality is marked by pronounced narcissism and a propensity to resist external constraints while his strategic actions reflect a logic of “rational irrationality”. The “unpredictability” he pursues is essentially based on his distinct personality and strategic reputation. Trump’s negotiation strategies and ways of information expression also integrate elements of personality, intuition and reputation, combining dual characteristics at the personality and rational levels. Furthermore, Trump prefers personalized strategic approaches such as summit diplomacy, which embodies the dual-orientation of strategic needs and personalized tendencies. These strategic psychological and behavioral attributes determine the uniqueness of his governing style and a certain degree of “disorder”, behind which lies a discernible logic of strategic rationality. Although Trump’s foreign policy often defies traditional norms, it is socially grounded to a certain degree and is partly rooted in many enduring policy traditions in U.S. history. The political impact of Trump’s personality traits on U.S. foreign strategy is, on the one hand, constrained by such factors as power structure and institutional design, and on the other hand, determined by the degree of alignment between his personality, policy preferences and the realities of U.S. domestic politics as well as social consensus. In the future, how Trump responds to the multiple political pressures he faces in the process of implementing his unorthodox foreign policies, will determine whether his political psychological traits can continue to dominate the direction of U.S. diplomacy.更多还原