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基于N-K模型的燃气与电缆通道多因素耦合风险分析
Multi-factor Coupling Risk Analysis of Gas and Cable Channels Based on the N-K Model
【摘要】 近年来,燃气管道破损渗漏进入相邻封闭通道发生火灾爆炸的安全事故频发,然而城市燃气管道与电缆通道空间关系却错综复杂。为明确该类事故的耦合风险因素,分析埋地燃气管道渗漏扩散到相邻电缆通道的特点及规律,从人为因素、燃气与电力管道设备设施、环境因素、管理因素等4个方面进行风险辨识。研究发现:四因素风险耦合处于最高水平;三因素风险耦合中,人为因素、燃气与电力管道设备设施本身以及管理因素相互耦合所导致的风险最高;而在双因素风险耦合中,城市燃气与电力管道设备设施本身以及管理之间的耦合风险最为显著。耦合因素包括燃气与电力之间的交叉耦合、并行间距不足、管道的材质老化腐蚀、电缆通道破裂、电缆敷设密集、通风不良、电缆老化错搭、燃气与电力行业管理的信息孤岛等因素。根据对风险耦合值大小评估,为城市燃气管道安全风险管理提供新的思路和方法。
【Abstract】 In recent years,there have witnessed frequent fire and explosion accidents caused by gas pipeline leaks infiltrating adjacent enclosed cable channels. Given the complex spatial relationships between urban gas pipelines and cable infrastructure,this study clarified coupled risk factors by analyzing leakage diffusion characteristics from buried gas pipelines to neighboring cable channels. A risk identification framework was developed across four dimensions: human factors,gas/power pipeline equipment,environmental coupling factors,and management practices. Key findings revealed that quadruple-factor risk coupling poses the highest hazard level. Among triple-factor couplings,interactions between human factors,gas/power equipment,and management practices present the greatest risk. For dual-factor couplings,the combination of gas/power equipment conditions and management deficiencies proved most significant. Coupling elements included cross-coupling between gas and power networks,insufficient parallel spacing,aging/corroded pipeline materials,cable channel fractures,dense cable layouts,poor ventilation,aging/misconnected cables,and information silos in cross-sector management. Risk coupling values were quantified to propose enhanced strategies for urban gas pipeline safety management.
【Key words】 gas pipeline; cable channel; coupling risk analysis; N-K model; risk identification;
- 【文献出处】 武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版) ,Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information & Management Engineering) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2025年05期
- 【分类号】TU996.7;TM247
- 【下载频次】54