【摘要】 国家体育消费试点城市政策作为推动体育产业高质量发展的重要制度安排，对体育企业创业生态具有深远影响。本文基于2015—2022年中国276个地级市面板数据，运用双重差分模型，系统考察该政策对体育企业的创业效应、作用机制及异质性影响。研究发现：(1)政策显著提升了试点城市体育企业的年新增数量，且经平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配-双重差分等一系列稳健性检验，该结论依然成立；(2)政策创业效应存在显著企业规模异质性，对注册资本0～100万元的小微体育企业创业激励效果最为突出，而对中大型企业影响不显著；(3)政策创业效应呈现区域分化特征，在经济欠发达的三四五线城市及市场潜力较大的地区，政策促进作用更为明显。研究提出：构建政策协同机制，释放政策组合乘数效应；优化政策资源靶向配置，扶持小微体育企业成长；实施区域差异化政策，促进体育产业协调发展。本文能够为评估体育产业政策成效提供量化依据，为政府优化政策设计、实施差异化产业扶持策略提供重要决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important institutional arrangement to promote the high-quality development of the sports industry, the policy of national sports consumption pilot cities has a profound impact on the entrepreneurial ecosystem of sports enterprises. Based on the panel data of 276 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2022, this paper employs the difference-in-differences(DID) method to systematically examine the entrepreneurial effects, action mechanisms, and heterogeneity characteristics of this policy on sports enterprises. The study finds that: The policy significantly increases the annual number of newly established sports enterprises in pilot cities, this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching-difference-in-differences(PSM-DID) tests; the entrepreneurial effects of the policy exhibit significant heterogeneity across enterprise sizes, it has the most pronounced incentive effect on micro and small sports enterprises with registered capital ranging from 0 to 1 million yuan, while showing no significant impact on medium and large enterprises; the policy’s entrepreneurial effects show regional differentiation, it has a more significant promoting effect in third-tier cities, fourth-tier cities, and fifth-tier cities with less developed economies and regions with greater market potential. The research proposes the following: Constructing a policy coordination mechanism to unleash the multiplier effect of policy combinations; optimizing the targeted allocation of policy resources to support the growth of micro and small sports enterprises; implementing differentiated regional policies to promote the coordinated development of the sports industry. This paper provides a quantitative basis for evaluating the effectiveness of sports industry policies and offers crucial decision-making references for the government to optimize policy design and implement differential industrial support strategies.更多还原