【摘要】 <正>在当今世界政治经济格局下，关税不只是单纯的国际贸易调控手段，还是牵一发而动全身的战略杠杆，深刻影响着国际秩序的未来。2025年4月，美国总统特朗普签署关于所谓“对等关税”的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的“最低基准关税”，并对一些贸易伙伴加征更高关税，一度引发全球股市、债市深幅震荡。这意味着美国从对少数国家加征“单边关税”扩大到对全球经济体全面加征“系统性关税”，严重冲击着全球多边贸易体制和国际合作框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the current global political and economic landscape, tariffs are not just a simple means of regulating international trade, but also a strategic lever that can have a ripple effect on the future of the international order. In April 2025, the US President Trump signed an executive order on so-called “equivalent tariffs”, announcing that the United States would impose a “minimum benchmark tariff ” of 10% on trading partners and impose higher tariffs on some trading partners, once causing deep fluctuations in global stock and bond markets. It not only means that the United States has expanded from imposing “unilateral tariffs” on a few countries to imposing “systemic tariffs” on major economies, but also seriously impacts the global multilateral trading system and international cooperation framework. In response to this, we invited experts and scholars in relevant fields to explore the evolution and trends of the international order in tariff games. Professor Yuan Zhigang believes that the world will shift from “idealistic globalization” to “realistic globalization”, and major world powers need to adhere to the path of globalization and promote more “zero sum games” to “positive sum games”. Researcher Song Hong believes that the prosperous era of “super globalization” led by the United States after World War II will come to an end. China should actively cooperate with non American countries to promote the formation and development of the non American international trade order, while maintain and promote the development of the multilateral trading system. Professor Wu Shanlin believes that the historical logic of the Trump administration’s imposition of equivalent tariffs is a return of American mercantilism to tradition, while the current logic is to promote the return of manufacturing, obtain fiscal revenue, and reconstruct the world trade system. Professor Huang Jianzhong believes that “peaceful competition” is the greatest common denominator of interests between China and the United States, and should also become the third rational choice for more major power games to surpass the “Thucydides Trap” and the “Great Power Catch-up Trap”. Professor Pan Yingli emphasized that promoting sustainable and high-quality development of the Chinese economy with internal balance is a more powerful and fundamental countermeasure. On this basis, we should propose structural reform policy suggestions for smooth internal circulation, as well as consumption doubling and anti deflation plans for fiscal and monetary coordination. Professor Qu Shang believes that it is necessary to fully summarize the historical experience of China’s construction of strategic rear areas, especially the third line construction, accelerate the construction of national strategic hinterland and key industry backup, optimize the layout of major productive areas, enhance the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains, and build a new strategic rear area in the new era.更多还原