【摘要】 目的 比较分析中国和全球归因高收缩压的脑卒中疾病负担，并预测其变化趋势。方法 收集整理GBD2021数据库中1990～2021年中国、全球归因高收缩压的脑卒中的分性别、年龄的死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率，利用Joinpoint回归模型分析疾病负担的变化趋势，借助R软件采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测中国及全球归因高收缩压的脑卒中疾病负担。结果 1990～2021年中国归因高收缩压的脑卒中标化死亡率(ASMR)和标化伤残调整寿命年率(ASDR)均高于全球水平，且下降速度小于全球，男性下降速度小于女性，到2021年中国ASMR和ASDR分别下降至77.73/10万(AAPC=-1.31%)和1484.39/10万人年(AAPC=-1.34%)。中国和全球归因高收缩压的脑卒中的疾病负担主要集中在老年人群，中国除25～34岁年龄组外，其余年龄组人群的死亡率和DALY率均呈下降趋势。预计未来10年中国和全球归因高收缩压的脑卒中的ASMR和ASDR持续下降，中国下降幅度大于全球整体水平。结论 我国归因高收缩压脑卒中的ASMR和ASDR虽然呈下降趋势，但是防治形势依旧严峻，老年人和男性的疾病负担较重，25～34岁年轻人的疾病负担没有改进需要引起重视，未来应结合现有经验完善高收缩压相关脑卒中的防治措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To compare and analyze the disease burden of stroke related to high systolic blood pressure(HSBP)in China and globally.Methods Data were collected and organized from the GBD 2021 on the age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates for stroke attributable to HSBP in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends in the disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP.The Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was applied to predict future disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP in China and globally.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years(ASDR)for stroke attributable to HSBP in China were both higher than the global trends, and the rate of decline was slower than that of the global trend.The decline was slower in males compared to females.By 2021,China’s ASMR and ASDR had decreased to 77.73 per 100000(AAPC =-1.31%)and 1484.39 per 100000 person-years(AAPC =-1.34%),respectively.The disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP both in China and globally was primarily concentrated in the elderly population.In China, except for the 25—34 age group, the mortality rate and DALY rate in all other age groups showed a downward trend.It is projected that, over the next 10 years, both China’s and the global ASMR and ASDR for stroke attributable to HSBP will continue to decline, and the decline in China was expected to be greater than the global trend.Conclusion Although the ASMR and ASDR for stroke attributable to HSBP in China show a declining trend, the prevention and treatment situation remains challenging.The disease burden is higher among the elderly and males, and the lack of improvement in the disease burden among the 25—34 age group requires attention.In the future, preventive and treatment measures for stroke related to HSBP should be further refined based on existing experience.更多还原