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政府财政科技支出的乘数效应——基于研发异质性与企业产权性质视角

Multiplier Effect of Government Expenditure on Science &Technology: From the Perspectives of R&D Heterogeneity and Enterprise Property Right

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【作者】 潘雄锋; 徐海涛;

【Author】 Pan Xiongfeng;Xu Haitao;

【通讯作者】 徐海涛;

【机构】 大连理工大学经济管理学院; 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院;

【摘要】 本文在一个含有企业产权性质的多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入研发活动异质性及投入产出结构,对比研究政府应用研究支出与基础研究支出对国有部门及非国有企业部门的异质性影响,并对我国政府财政科技支出乘数进行估算。模拟结果显示,政府应用研究支出及基础研究支出均会产生显著的正向溢出作用,其中政府应用研究支出具有较强的即期影响,但其影响效应的持续性不足;基础研究支出能够产生较长期的影响,但其影响效应具有时滞性。通过计算各类乘数发现,政府应用研究支出及基础研究支出乘数均逐渐增大,但基础研究支出的长期乘数要显著大于应用研究支出;政府财政科技支出将对非国有企业部门产生更强的乘数效应;投入产出结构、研发支持偏向性及信贷融资偏向性对政府财政科技支出乘数具有显著影响,当剥离投入产出结构后,政府应用研究支出及基础研究支出乘数均明显减小,当消除研发支持偏向性及信贷融资偏向性后,政府应用研究支出乘数及基础研究支出乘数均明显增大。本文为进一步完善财政科技支出结构,有效发挥政府财政科技支持作用具有积极意义。

【Abstract】 In this paper, the autors introduce the R&D activity heterogeneity and input-output structure in a multi-sector DSGE model with the enterprise property rights. By using this model, we study the impact of government expenditure in applied research and basic research on the state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises, and estimate the multiplier of China’s government expenditure on science and technology. The simulation results show that both government expenditure on applied research and basic research will have a significant positive spillover effect. Government expenditure on applied research has a strong immediate impact, but its impact is not sustainable. Basic research expenditure can have a long-term impact but its effect has a lag. By calculating various multipliers, it is found that the multipliers of government expenditure on applied research and basic research both increase, but the multiplier of the latter is significantly larger than the former. Government expenditure on science and technology will have a stronger multiplier effect on non-state-owned enterprises. Input-output structure, R&D policy bias, and credit finance bias have a significant impact on the multiplier of government expenditure on science & technology. When the input-output structure is stripped, the multipliers of government expenditure on applied and basic research both significantly decrease. When R&D policy bias and credit bias are eliminated, the multipliers of government expenditure on applied and basic research both increase significantly. It is positive to further improving the structure of fiscal expenditure on science and technology and enhancing the supporting role of government fiscal.

【基金】 国家自然科学基金青年项目“政府研发支持与环境规制对工业企业绿色技术创新的影响作用研究:协同机制与优化路径”(72404264);国家社会科学基金面上项目“创新溢出驱动中国区域碳效率收敛的传导路径与作用机制研究”(23BGL314)
  • 【文献出处】 统计研究 ,Statistical Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2025年01期
  • 【分类号】F812.45;F273.1;F279.2
  • 【下载频次】155
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