【摘要】 公交资源配置环节的供需不匹配造成了运营低效和资源浪费的现象，因此有必要识别公交资源配置错位区域。然而由于公交资源配置存在规模效应，且地区间人群活动性及出行偏好存在差异，这种错位关系难以界定。通过计算区位熵（LQ）识别供需失衡地区，并利用多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型分析空间分异的供需调节机制，综合辨识公交资源错配区域，并对上海市嘉定区的公交资源配置情况进行实证分析。回归结果表明，职住密度、公交服务频率、工厂占地比与地铁站对客流的局部作用效应明显，表现出很强的空间异质性。根据职住密度和公交服务频率诱增客流能力的强弱，将区域分为“强-强”“强-弱”“弱-强”“弱-弱”4类，并提出了差异化的公交发展策略。其中“强-强”“弱-弱”类型的供需失衡地区为公交资源配置错位区域，建议结合区位熵调整公交供给水平；“强-弱”“弱-强”类型的供需失衡地区宜分别优化线网布局和导入出行需求。提出的公交资源错配区域识别方法，拓展了公交资源科学配置、降本增效的相关理论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mismatch between supply and demand in public transport resource allocation leads to inefficiencies in operations and waste of resources. Therefore, it is essential to identify mismatched regions in public transport resource allocation. However, due to the scale effect of public transport resource allocation and the differences in mobility and travel preferences among regions, it is challenging to identify the mismatch relationship. By calculating the locational quotient(LQ) to identify regions of imbalance between supply and demand, and using the multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR) model to analyze the supply and demand adjustment mechanism with spatial differentiation, this paper comprehensively identified the mismatched regions of public transport resource, and conducted an empirical analysis in Jiading District, Shanghai. The regression results show that the residential-job density, bus service frequency, factory land ratio, and metro station presence have significant local effects on ridership, indicating strong spatial heterogeneity.Based on the induced ridership potential of residential-job density and the bus service frequency, this paper classified the region into four categories: “strong-strong”, “strong-weak”, “weak-strong” and “weak-weak”. Then it proposed differentiated strategies for public transport development. The “strong-strong” and “weak-weak” types represent regions with mismatched supply and demand, where it is recommended to adjust public transport supply using LQ analysis. For the “strongweak” and “weak-strong” types, strategies should focus on optimization of the network layout and introduction of travel demand, respectively. The proposed method for identifying mismatched public transport resource regions contributes to the theoretical advancement of scientifically allocating public transport resources and improving efficiency while reducing costs.更多还原