【摘要】 电子信息产业是全球科技竞争的核心领域，在两岸经贸关系中具有重要地位。自特朗普第一任期挑起中美贸易争端以来，两岸电子信息产业供应链布局呈现新特征：台湾电子信息产业对大陆贸易和投资依存度均有所下降；其在大陆生产比降低但销售比提升；以美国为市场的台电子信息供应链向外转移等。特朗普开启第二任期后，旋即推出2.0版本的关税政策，并因其覆盖范围广、关税税率高、产业针对性强，引发了国际社会的强烈反应，对全球电子信息产业供应链格局产生显著影响。研究发现，尽管部分电子信产业供应链面临调整压力，但基于市场化选择机制、大陆产业基础与市场规模等积极因素，两岸半导体供应链表现出较强的韧性。此外，2.0“关税战”导致的消费市场转移效应或为两岸电子信息产业提供新的发展动力。未来，可考虑从融入大陆现代化生产体系、深耕大陆和第三地市场、拓展两岸经贸合作新领域等方面着手，推动两岸经贸高质量融合发展，提升两岸产业链供应链韧性，为有效应对外部冲击做好准备工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 The electronic information industry is the core area of global technological competition and occupies a critical position in cross-Strait economic and trade relations.Since Trump’s first term provoked the trade dispute between China and the United States, new characteristics have emerged in the supply chain configuration of cross-Strait electronic information industry: the dependence of Taiwan’s electronic information industry on the Chinese mainland in terms of trade and investment has declined; its share of production in the Chinese mainland has decreased but its share of sales has increased; the supply chains of Taiwan’s electronic information industry targeting the U.S.market have shifted outward.After the commencement of Trump’s second term, a 2.0 version of his tariff policy was promptly introduced.Owing to its broad coverage, high tariff rates, and distinct industrial targeting, the policy triggered strong reactions from the international community and exerted a significant impact on the configuration of global electronic information industry supply chains.Research have found that although certain electronic information industry supply chains face adjustment pressure, the cross-Strait semiconductor supply chains have shown strong resilience based on positive factors such as market-oriented selection mechanisms, the Chinese mainland’s industrial foundations, and its market scale.In addition, the consumer market shift effect caused by the “tariff war” 2.0 may provide new momentum for the development of cross-Strait electronic information industry.In the future, efforts could be directed toward integrating into the Chinese mainland’s modernized production system, deepening the engagement with the Chinese mainland and third-party markets, and expanding new areas of cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation.Such initiatives would help advance high-quality integration of cross-Strait economic and trade relations, enhance the resilience of cross-Strait industrial and supply chains, and better prepare to effectively respond to external shocks.更多还原