【摘要】 针对近年来径流式电站、船闸等河道型水利工程持续修建导致传统马斯京根法在新安江模型流域洪水预报应用中精度下降的问题，引入并改进了系统响应误差修正方法，提出了基于系统响应的马斯京根连续演算误差修正方法。该方法根据预报断面实测流量和计算流量的差值计算修正比例系数，将其应用于各河段节点，对河道汇流初值进行实时动态修正。以受梯级船闸影响的富春江流域主河道为例进行实例分析，结果表明：修正后的洪水预报精度明显提高，修正方法对洪峰的修正效果最好，对于双峰或多峰洪水，特别是受水利工程调控影响较大的洪水过程具有显著的修正效果；传统马斯京根法在加入系统响应误差修正方法后，可有效降低河道型水利工程对洪水预报中河道汇流演算的影响，提高流域洪水预报精度，同时解决了传统系统响应误差修正方法中信息来源与待修正变量之间信息维度不对称的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The system response error correction method was introduced and improved, and a Muskingum continuous routing error correction method based on system response was proposed to solve problem of the declining accuracy of the traditional Muskingum method in river basin flood forecasting by using the Xin’anjiang model, due to the continuous construction of river channel water conservancy projects such as runoff hydropower stations and ship locks in recent years. A correction coefficient was calculated based on the difference between observed and calculated discharges at the forecast section, and was applied to the nodes of various upstream river sections to conduct real-time dynamic corrections of the initial values of river confluence. Taking the main river channel of the Fuchunjiang Basin, which is affected by cascade ship locks, as a case study, the results show that the flood forecasting accuracy after correction is significantly improved. The correction method has the best correction effect on flood peaks, and it also has a remarkable correction effect on double peak or multipeak floods, especially on those flood processes greatly affected by water conservancy projects. The traditional Muskingum method, combined with the system response error correction method, can effectively reduce the impact of river channel water conservancy projects on flood forecasting, improve the accuracy of river basin flood forecasting, and solve the problem of asymmetric information dimensions between information sources and variables to be corrected in the traditional system response error correction method.更多还原