【摘要】 为量化评估南水北调西线工程不同调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇及其影响，聚焦西线工程3种主要调水方案，构建了基于Vine Copula函数的上下线断面径流丰枯联合分布模型，系统分析了各调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇特征，提出了调水适配度指标，开展了不同调水方案下有利调水概率分析，多维度探究了不同调水方案对西线工程整体效果的影响。结果表明：方案1(上线、下线调水量分别为80亿、90亿m~3)的丰枯同步概率为52.0%,大于异步概率，调水适配度波动较大，为56.3%～66.0%,有利调水概率最低，为62.3%,调水稳定性较差；方案2(上线、下线调水量分别为40亿、130亿m~3)因断面数量的增加使得丰枯同步概率下降为47.8%,调水适配度和有利调水概率分别为68.3%～74.9%和63.3%,均优于方案1;方案3(下线调水量为170亿m~3)的丰枯同步概率为50.4%,近似等于丰枯异步概率，调水适配度最大可达76.0%,且波动幅度最小，调水适配性最佳，有利调水概率达69.3%,方案3可更有效利用断面间的径流资源，更有利于保障工程整体的稳定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 To quantitatively evaluate the characteristics of runoff wetness-dryness encountering and their impacts under different water diversion schemes for the South-to-North Water Diversion Western Route Project, this study focused on three main water diversion schemes. A runoff wetness-dryness joint distribution model at the upper-and lower-line sections was constructed based on the Vine Copula function, and the runoff wetness-dryness encountering characteristics under each water diversion scheme were analyzed. Furthermore, a water diversion adaptability index was proposed, and an analysis of the probability of favorable water diversion conditions was conducted to explore the impacts of different schemes on the overall effectiveness of the Western Route Project from a multidimensional perspective. The results showed that, for scheme 1(with the upper and lower route intakes of 8 billion m~3 and 9 billion m~3, respectively), the synchronous wetness-dryness encountering probability was 52.0%, exceeding the asynchronous probability. Its water diversion adaptability fluctuated significantly, ranging from 56.3% to 66.0%. The favorable water diversion probability was the lowest at 62.3%, and its water diversion stability was poor. For scheme 2(with the upper and lower route intakes of 4 billion m~3 and 13 billion m~3, respectively), due to an increased number of sections, the synchronous wetness-dryness encountering probability decreased to 47.8%. It exhibited superior performance to scheme 1, with water diversion adaptability ranging from 68.3% to 74.9% and a favorable water diversion probability of 63.3%. Scheme 3(with the lower route intake of 17 billion m~3) had a synchronous wetness-dryness encountering probability of 50.4%, approximately equal to the asynchronous probability. Its water diversion adaptability was optimal, reaching a maximum of 76.0% with the smallest fluctuation. The favorable water diversion probability for scheme 3 was the highest at 69.3%. Consequently, scheme 3 can more effectively utilize the runoff resources between sections and is more conducive to ensuring the overall stability of the project.更多还原