【摘要】 国家自主贡献(NDCs)是《巴黎协定》的核心制度，要求各缔约方明确其在减缓温室气体排放、适应气候变化影响以及提供资金、技术、能力建设支持等方面的目标和措施，并每5年更新一次且应较之前有所进步。这一机制的诞生，体现了全球气候治理从“自上而下”向“自下而上”的转变。为有效监督各国在实现NDCs目标上的进展，围绕双年透明度报告，通过技术专家审评、促进性多边审议和全球盘点，确保各国在应对气候变化方面的努力是透明、连贯和有效的。定期更新、进展追踪、国际评估和国际合作，形成了NDCs更新机制的闭环管理。研究表明，发达国家与发展中国家在NDCs更新模式上存在显著差异：前者多采用绝对量化目标与覆盖范围扩展的更新模式，而后者则注重强度目标与适应性措施。中国2015年首次提交国家自主贡献，并于2021年更新目标。中国的森林蓄积量和风电、光伏总装机容量已提前完成目标，2023年碳排放强度下降51.8%，非化石能源占比达到17.9%。中国2030年碳达峰目标已进入攻坚阶段，但在能源结构转型与生态系统增汇领域仍面临双重挑战。中国需立足国情，深化减排政策协同，加速能源绿色转型，完善碳市场，为全球气候治理提供制度创新与实践范式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs) are the cornerstone of the Paris Agreement,requiring each Party to specify their goals and measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions,adapting to climate change impacts,and providing support in finance,technology and capacity-building.NDCs shall be updated every five years with enhanced ambition compared to previous versions.The establishment of this mechanism reflects the transition of global climate governance from a "top-down" to a "bottom-up" approach.To effectively monitor the progress of the countries in achieving their NDC targets,efforts are centered on biennial transparency reports,and technical expert review,facilitative multilateral consideration and global stocktake are conducted to ensure that the countries′ endeavors in addressing climate change are transparent,consistent and effective.Regular updates,progress tracking,international assessments and international cooperation form a closed-loop management system for the NDC update mechanism.Studies indicate that there are significant differences in NDC update models between developed and developing countries.Developed countries mostly adopt an update model featuring absolute quantitative targets and expanded coverage,while developing countries focus on intensity targets and adaptive measures.China submitted its first NDC in 2015 and updated its targets in 2021.China has already achieved its targets for forest stock volume and total installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power ahead of schedule.In 2023,China′ s carbon emission intensity decreased by51.8%,and the share of non-fossil energy reached 17.9%.China ′s 2030 carbon peaking target has entered a critical stage,yet it still faces dual challenges in energy structure transformation and ecosystem carbon sink enhancement.China needs to base itself on its national conditions,deepen policy coordination for emission reduction,accelerate green energy transition,improve the carbon market,and provide institutional innovations and practical paradigms for global climate governance.更多还原