【摘要】 目的 分析2016—2021年怀化市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率的变化趋势，并进行灰色模型预测，为制定恶性肿瘤防控政策提供参考依据。方法 收集2016—2021年怀化市户籍人口恶性肿瘤死亡资料，应用Joinpoint回归模型和一阶一元灰色模型[grey model with first order and one variable, GM(1,1)]对恶性肿瘤死亡率进行趋势分析及预测。结果 2016—2021年怀化市居民恶性肿瘤全人群粗死亡率为120.76/10万，标化死亡率为106.60/10万。男性恶性肿瘤粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为147.99/10万和136.80/10万，女性恶性肿瘤粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为91.63/10万和77.37/10万，男性恶性肿瘤标化死亡率高于女性。0～<15岁居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率最低，≥65岁居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率最高。2016—2021年全人群、男性、女性恶性肿瘤标化死亡率总体上均呈上升趋势，年均分别上升约1.36%、1.70%和0.86%。GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示，2022—2030年怀化市居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率较往年相比有明显上升趋势。结论 2016—2021年怀化市居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率和标化死亡率总体呈上升趋势，其中男性和中老年人是恶性肿瘤重点防治人群，应加大恶性肿瘤防治工作力度，以最大程度降低恶性肿瘤死亡率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the changing trends in the mortality rates of malignant tumors among residents in Huaihua city from 2016 to 2021, to perform a prediction by using a grey model, and to provide a reference basis for formulating policies for malignant tumor prevention and control. Methods We collected the data about malignant tumor deaths of registered population in Huaihua city from 2016 to 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in the mortality rates of malignant tumors, and the grey model with first order and one variable(GM(1, 1)) was employed to make a prediction. Results The crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in the entire population in Huaihua city from 2016 to 2021 was 120.76/100,000, with the standardized mortality rate being 106.60/100,000. The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in the males were 147.99/100,000 and 136.80/100,000 respectively, while those in the females were 91.63/100,000 and 77.37/100,000 respectively. The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors was higher in the males than in the females. The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors was found to be the lowest in residents aged 0-<15 years, but the highest in ones aged 65 years and above. All the standardized mortality rates of malignant tumors in the entire population, males and females from 2016 to 2021 showed an overall upward trend, with the average annual increase being about 1.36%, 1.70% and 0.86% respectively. Based on the prediction results from the GM(1,1) model, we have seen a significant upward trend in the standardized mortality rates of malignant tumors in the residents in Huaihua city from 2022 to 2030 compared with previous years. Conclusions The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among the residents in Huaihua cityfrom 2016 to 2021 showed an overall upward trend,with the males and the middle-aged and elderly being the key groups formalignant tumor prevention and treatment. Efforts to prevent and treat malignant tumors should be enhanced to reduce the mortalityrate of malignant tumors to the greatest extent.更多还原