【摘要】 本研究基于綦江区水环境特征，通过划分水环境管控分区(优先保护区、重点管控区、一般管控区),结合环境容量测算与未来污染排放预测，提出差异化管理策略。结果显示：一般管控区COD和氨氮总容量分别为9 416 t/a和696 t/a,采用虚拟排口法保守核算，预留10%环境余量。未来新增污染排放中，工业源负荷增速显著，2035年COD和氨氮新增量较2025年增长81%和92%,集中于綦江中游段工业区；生活源负荷增速平缓(+9%),但北渡区域贡献超70%。至2035年，总排放量(COD 3 238.53 t/a,氨氮414.15 t/a)未超环境容量上限，但工业源高增速及热点区域污染集中需优先管控。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study proposes differentiated management strategies for Qijiang District by integrating water environment management zoning(priority protection zones, key control zones, and general control zones) with environmental capacity assessment and future pollution emission prediction. Results show that the total COD and ammonia nitrogen capacities in the general control zones are 9 416 t/a and 696 t/a, respectively, conservatively calculated using the virtual discharge outlet method with a 10% environmental margin. Future pollution emissions reveal a significant increase in industrial sources: COD and ammonia nitrogen loads will surge by 81% and 92% from 2025 to 2035, concentrated in the midstream industrial areas of Qijiang River. Domestic pollution loads grow moderately(+9%), with over 70% contributed by the Beidu area. By 2035, total emissions(COD 3 238. 53 t/a, ammonia nitrogen 414. 15 t/a) will remain below the environmental capacity thresholds, yet priority control is required for high-growth industrial sources and pollution hotspots.更多还原