【摘要】 探究土地利用变化产生的景观生态风险分布对热带雨林生态健康、自然生态系统原真性和完整性的保护至关重要。基于国家公园1980—2023年9期土地利用数据，探究其景观生态风险评价的最优尺度及时空分布特征。得出：(1)评价单元梯度的响应曲线中香农均匀度和分离度等景观格局指数均在2.5km处出现拐点，该尺度为国家公园景观生态风险最优评价尺度。(2)国家公园内部土地利用较稳定，其中林地-草地为主要转换类型且反复交替，但流入流出面积保持相对平衡。景观生态风险值的Moran′s I介于0.3079—0.3600,空间相关性整体呈上升趋势。(3)国家公园景观生态风险值在0.0241—0.0243上下波动，长期趋势较为平稳，表现出东西高中部低、沿水沿路分割的空间格局。较高风险等级向较低风险等级转换面积比反向转换多0.86%,高风险区和低风险区波动增长了79.95km~2和103.63km~2,较低风险区占比最大，平均高于其他等级8.08%左右。高风险区和较高风险区围绕水系、道路等人为活动频繁区域分布，中等风险区在国家公园南部普遍分布，远离水域、道路区域风险等级越低，风险等级波动区域呈条带状分布于同等风险等级成片区的边缘。建议实施分级管理和保护，针对高风险聚集区建立长期监测机制，合理优化土地利用结构、减少经济林的种植与砍伐，降低分离度和破碎度，做到与自然环境协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exploring the distribution of landscape ecological risks caused by land use changes is crucial for the ecological health of tropical rainforests, as well as for the protection of the authenticity and integrity of natural ecosystems. Based on land use data of National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest from 1980 to 2023, this article explores the optimal scale and spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape ecological risk assessment in the national park. The results show that:(1) 2.5km is the optimal scale for landscape ecological risk assessment, as the response curve of the assessment unit gradient shows that both Shannon′s evenness index and landscape separation index exhibit inflection points at 2.5 km.(2) Land use in the national park is relatively stable, with forest-grassland being the main conversion type that alternates frequently, while the inflow and outflow areas remain relatively balanced. The Moran′s I of landscape ecological risk ranged from 0.3079 to 0.3600, and the spatial correlation shows an upward trend, demonstrating fluctuating moderate positive clustering.(3) Landscape ecological risk values fluctuate between 0.0241 and 0.0243, indicating a stable long-term trend. Risk zones exhibit steady development, forming a pattern of higher risk in the east and west, with lower risk in the center, and fragmentation along water bodies and roads. Conversions from higher risk levels to lower risk levels exceeded the reverse by 0.86%. High-and low-risk zones fluctuated and increased by 79.95 km~2 and 103.63 km~2, respectively. The lower-risk zone represents the largest proportion, averaging about 8.08% higher than other levels. High-and higher-risk zones cluster around areas with frequent human activities, such as water bodies and roads, while medium-risk areas are widely distributed in the southern part of the national park. The farther from water bodies and roads, the lower the risk level. Fluctuating risk level areas are distributed in strips along the edges of areas with the same level. In order to promote coordinated development with the natural environment, it is suggested to implement graded management and protection, establish a long-term monitoring mechanism for high-risk areas, optimize land use, reduce the planting and cutting of economic forest, and decrease landscape separation and fragmentation.更多还原