【摘要】 粤港澳大湾区作为我国城市群的典型代表,在国家“一带一路”倡议中具有重要地位。基于压力—状态—响应(Pressure-State-Response)模型,从生态、资源、人文三个方面选取18个指标因子构建大湾区生态安全评价体系,利用熵权耦合灰色关联度法计算权重,结合综合评价、空间探索分析等方法,对大湾区1980—2020年的生态安全时空分布特征及演变规律进行评价,并借助地理探测器探讨了影响大湾区生态安全异质性的主要驱动因子。结果表明:(1)大湾区生态安全在时间上呈现“缓慢—快速—缓慢”降低趋势,以2000—2010年降幅最大;在空间上表现为四周高、中间低的分布态势。(2)大湾区生态安全空间自相关程度高,高高聚集主要集中在肇庆西北部、惠州东部和北部、广州东北部等地区,以上区域含有大量林地及自然保护区,应当重点保护;低低聚集分布在佛山、东莞、深圳、广州西南部及中山北部等地区,以上区域人类活动密集,应当合理规划用地、大力发展第三产业。(3)1980年以来,大湾区生态安全综合指数逐渐降低,主要受到人为干扰、土地利用、区域开发、生物丰度、林地覆盖和生态弹性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a flagship urban agglomeration in China, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plays a pivotal role in the national Belt and Road initiative. Employing the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, we selected 18 indicators across ecological, resource, and socioeconomic dimensions to construct an ecological security evaluation system. Using entropy weighting and grey correlation analysis to determine indicator weights, we assessed spatiotemporal patterns of ecological security (1980 – 2020) through comprehensive evaluation and spatial exploration. Geographical detector modeling identified key drivers security heterogeneity. The results show that: (1) Ecological security exhibited a “gradual-rapid-gradual” decline, with the steepest reduction occurring during 2000 and 2010. Spatially, security followed a “peripherally high, centrally low” distribution pattern. (2) The spatial autocorrelation degree of ecological security in the Greater Bay Area is high, and the high clusters are mainly concentrated in Northwest of Zhaoqing, the East and north of Huizhou and the northeast of Guangzhou, where a large amount of forest land and nature reserves are distributed and should be protected; The low-level clusters are distributed in Foshan, Dongguan, Shenzhen, southwest Guangzhou and northern Zhongshan, where the above areas are densely populated by human activities and should be reasonably planned for land use and vigorously developed for tertiary industries. (3) Since 1980, the declining security has been primarily driven by: anthropogenic pressure, land use intensity, regional development pressure, biodiversity loss, forest coverage reduction, and diminished ecological resilience.更多还原