【摘要】 [目的]监测张承地区近年来植被覆盖动态变化，阐明自然因素和人类活动对植被覆盖变化的影响机制，以期为地区生态环境的保护和水资源的合理利用提供参考。[方法]基于MODIS-NDVI数据，采用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法，分析了张承地区2001—2022年植被覆盖时空分布规律及趋势变化，利用相关分析、偏相关分析和地理探测器等方法，对影响NDVI的自然和人为因子进行了相关性及驱动力分析。[结果]（1）研究区NDVI年均值为0.46，整体上呈现东南高、西北低的特点。2001—2022年研究区近90%区域的植被呈现明显改善的趋势；（2） NDVI与气温和降水呈现较强的正相关关系，正相关的面积占比分别为98.36%和89%，而对于土壤水分的响应则表现为根区土壤水分的影响大于表层土壤水分；（3）张承地区林地适宜生长的水位埋深区间4～6.5 m，草地则是在4 m以下；（4）研究区内影响因子对NDVI变化的贡献率从大到小排序为降水>根区土壤水分>表层土壤水分>土地利用类型>地下水位埋深>气温。[结论]张承地区植被指数在过去21年中整体呈现上升趋势，东南地区植被状况优于西北地区，坝上地区表现尤为突出。植被变化主要受到降水、土壤水分和用地类型的综合影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This study aims to monitor the dynamic changes in vegetation coverage in the Zhangjiakou-Chengde region in recent years, clarify the mechanisms by which natural factors and human activities influence vegetation coverage changes, so as to provide a reference for protecting the regional ecological environment and rationally utilizing water resources. [Methods] Based on MODIS-NDVI data, the Sen+MannKendall trend test method was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and trend changes of vegetation coverage in the Zhangjiakou-Chengde region from 2001 to 2022. The correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and geodetector methods were used to analyze the correlation and driving forces of natural and human influences on NDVI. [Results](1) The average NDVI value in the study area was 0.46, showing a general pattern of higher values in the southeastern and lower values in the northwest. From 2001—2022, nearly 90% of the study area showed a significant improvement in vegetation.(2) NDVI exhibited a strong positive correlation with temperature and precipitation, with the positive correlation accounting for 98.36% and 89%, respectively. The response of soil moisture was such that the influence of root zone soil moisture was greater than that of surface soil moisture.(3) The optimal groundwater table depth range for the forest in the ZhangjiakouChengde region was between 4～6.5 m, while for grassland it was below 4 m.(4) The contributions of influencing factors to NDVI changes, ranked from highest to lowest, were as follows: precipitation>root zone soil moisture>surface soil moisture>land use type>groundwater table depth>temperature. [Conclusion] In the past 21 years, the vegetation index in the Zhangjiakou-Chengde region showed an overall upward trend, with the southeastern area presenting better vegetation conditions than the northwest, particularly in the Bashang area. The combined effects of precipitation, soil moisture, and land use type predominantly influenced vegetation changes.更多还原