【摘要】 [目的]评估城市群生态系统的韧性及其面临的风险，以促进资源开发与生态环境保护的协调。[方法]以滇中城市群为研究区域，基于景观格局视角构建了生态韧性和生态风险定量评估模型，系统分析了2002—2022年生态韧性和生态风险时空动态演变。采用TOPSIS方法构建了生态“韧性—风险”安全状态等级，并提出了相应的分区管控策略。[结果]（1）研究区生态韧性水平呈现“西强东弱”的空间分布格局，均值由2002年的0.369 2上升至2022年的0.381，整体呈上升趋势；（2）生态风险呈现“中部高，东西低”的空间分布，均值稳定在约0.04，整体趋于改善，但昆明市周边的高风险区有所增加，占比由1.13%增至1.49%;(3)研究区2002—2022年整体生态安全状态等级下降，理想状态和良好状态的比例分别由1.21%和50.42%下降至0.54%和40.74%，而风险状态和敏感状态的比例则分别由9.67%和13.89%上升至11.37%和16.95%。[结论]研究区20年来总体的生态安全状态等级下降，其理想与良好状态比例缩减，风险状态与敏感状态增多。未来应针对不同状态区域制定相应的管控策略，以提升生态韧性、降低生态风险，保障生态安全与可持续性。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This study aims to assess the resilience of urban agglomeration ecosystems and the risks they face, in order to promote the coordination between resource development and ecological environmental protection. [Methods] Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as the study area, quantitative assessment models for ecological resilience and ecological risk were developed from a landscape pattern perspective. The spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological resilience and ecological risk from 2002 to 2022 were systematically analyzed. The TOPSIS method was employed to construct the ecological ‘resilience-risk’ safety status classification, and corresponding zoning management strategies were proposed. [Results](1) The ecological resilience level in the study area exhibited a spatial pattern of ‘strong in the west, weak in the east’, with the average value rising from 0.369 2 in 2002 to 0.381 in 2022, indicating an overall upward trend.(2) Ecological risk displayed a spatial distribution of ‘higher in the center, lower in the east and west’, with the average value stable at about 0.04. Although the overall trend showed improvement, high-risk areas around Kunming City increased, with their proportion rising from 1.13% to 1.49%.(3) From 2002 to 2022, the overall ecological safety status of the study area declined. The proportion of areas in ideal and good status decreased from 1.21% and 50.42% to 0.54% and 40.74%, respectively, while the proportion of areas in risky and sensitive status increased from 9.67% and 13.89% to 11.37% and 16.95%, respectively. [Conclusion] Over the past 20 years, the overall ecological safety status in the study area declined, with reductions in the proportion of areas in ideal and good status and increases in risky and sensitive status. Future zoning control strategies should be developed for different status areas to enhance ecological resilience, reduce ecological risk, and ensure ecological safety and sustainability.更多还原