【摘要】 研究在波动温度（2～35℃）条件下，运用一步动态数值分析和优化方法，构建酱卤猪头肉中菌落总数生长和存活的三级模型，用于实时新鲜度预测。验证结果表明，菌落总数预测模型的均方根误差为0.26(lg(CFU/g))，残差均值与标准差分别为-0.047(lg(CFU/g))与0.125(lg(CFU/g))，在正常的实验误差范围内。本研究结果可用于预测酱卤猪头肉在冷链和温度滥用期间菌落总数的变化，获得预包装酱卤猪头肉在2～35℃的实时新鲜度预测模型，为监测预包装酱卤猪头肉在波动温度下的实时新鲜度提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study, using a one-step dynamic numerical analysis and optimization method, a tertiary model describing the growth of total viable count in sauced pig head meat was developed for real-time freshness prediction under fluctuating temperature(2–35 ℃). The validation results showed that the root mean square error(RMSE) of the prediction model for total viable count was 0.26(lg(CFU/g)), and the residual mean and standard deviation were-0.047(lg(CFU/g)) and 0.125(lg(CFU/g)), respectively, which were within the normal experimental error range. The results of this study can be used to predict the changes of total viable count during cold chain and temperature abuse, and obtain a real-time freshness prediction model for pre-packaged sauced pig head at 2–35 ℃, thereby providing a theoretical basis for the real-time monitoring of the freshness of prepackaged sauced pig head at fluctuating temperatures.更多还原