【摘要】 探究劳动力老龄化对农地流转行为的影响，旨在为加快引导农村土地经营权有序流转提供决策参考。基于中国家庭追踪调查数据库（CFPS）中2016、2018、2020和2022年甘肃省样本数据，运用二元Logit回归模型实证分析农业劳动力老龄化对农地流转的影响。结果表明：（1）农业劳动力老龄化对农地转出有显著正向影响，对农地转入有显著负向影响；（2）通过对老年农户不同年龄阶段进行异质性分析，发现农地流转意愿随着老龄化程度的提高而增强，60岁至65岁的老年劳动力对农地转入有显著负向影响，但65岁至70岁的老年劳动力对农地转出有显著负向影响；（3）通过对农业劳动力数量的差异进行异质性分析，发现在劳动力人数较少的农户家庭中，劳动力老龄化对农地转出和农地转入行为均有显著正向影响。针对研究结论，结合研究区实际从完善农村养老保障制度、支持企业下乡和引导老龄人口退出农业生产3个方面提出对策建议，从而实现土地规模化经营。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study investigates the impact of labor force aging on farmland transfer behaviors, aiming to provide decision-making references for accelerating the orderly transfer of rural land management rights. Utilizing sample data of Gansu Province from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for the years 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, a binary Logit regression model was employed to empirically analyze the effects of agricultural labor force aging on farmland transfer. The results indicate:(1)Agricultural labor force aging has a significantly positive impact on farmland transfer-out and a significantly negative impact on farmland transfer-in;(2)Heterogeneity analysis across different age groups of elderly farmers reveals that as the degree of aging increases,the willingness for farmland transfer strengthens. Specifically, elderly laborers aged 60 to 65 have a significantly negative impact on farmland transfer-in, whereas those aged 65 to 70 show a significantly negative impact on farmland transfer-out;(3)Heterogeneity analysis based on the variation in the number of agricultural laborers shows that in households with fewer laborers, labor force aging has a significantly positive impact on both farmland transfer-out and transfer-in behaviors. Based on the research conclusion, combined with the actual situation of the study area, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from three aspects: improving the rural old-age security system, supporting enterprises to go to the countryside and guiding the elderly population to withdraw from agricultural production, so as to achieve large-scale land operation.更多还原