【摘要】 文章采用问卷调查法、德尔菲法、录像观察法和数理统计法对2017—2021年210场网球“四大满贯”以及大师赛的比赛录像（硬地、红土、草地各70场）进行数据分析，并引入关键表现指标理论体系，建立判别函数模型，找出运动员在不同类型场地比赛时影响比赛胜负的技战术关键表现指标。结果：不同类型场地中，影响比赛胜负的技战术关键表现指标模型分别是Y（硬地场）=-12.00+10.73×接发球得分率+8.74×一发得分率+4.15×二发得分率；Y（红土场）=-13.26+13.67×接发球得分率+7.53×一发得分率+5.68×制胜分与非受迫性失误比值（W/U）;Y（草地场）=-9.63+10.27×接发球得分率+4.70×二发得分率+4.95×网前得分率；模型的Wilks’ lambad统计量依次为0.40、0.31、0.45,X~2值依次为124.93、136.43、74.58,P值均小于0.05。结论：硬地场技战术关键表现指标包括一发得分率、二发得分率和接发球得分率；红土场技战术关键表现指标包括一发得分率、制胜分与非受迫性失误比和接发球得分率；草地场技战术关键表现指标包括网前得分率、二发得分率和接发球得分率。不同场地比赛中接发球得分率始终是对比赛结果影响力最大的技战术关键表现指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study used the methods of questionnaire surveys, Delphi method, video analysis and mathematical statistics to analyze and study the data of 210 games in the Grand Slam Tennis and the Tennis Masters Cup from 2017 to 2021, including 70games on hard court, clay court and grass court respectively. By introducing a theoretical framework of key performance indicators and establishing discriminant function models, this study identified tactical performance indicators affecting match outcomes of athletes on different court types. The results showed that the models for key tactical performance indicators influencing match outcomes on different court types were as follows: Y(hard courts) =-12.00 + 10.73 × return scoring rate + 8.74 × first serve scoring rate + 4.15 × second serve scoring rate; Y(clay courts) =-13.26 + 13.67 × return scoring rate + 7.53 × first serve scoring rate + 5.68× winners to unforced errors ratio(W/U); Y(grass courts) =-9.63 + 10.27 × return scoring rate + 4.70 × second serve scoring rate +4.95 × net scoring rate. The Wilks’ lambda statistics for the models were 0.40, 0.31, and 0.45 respectively, with chi-square values of124.93, 136.43, and 74.58, all having p-values less than 0.05. Conclusion: Key tactical performance indicators on hard courts include first serve scoring rate, second serve scoring rate, and return scoring rate. On clay courts, they include first serve scoring rate, W/U ratio, and return scoring rate. On grass courts, they include net scoring rate, second serve scoring rate, and return scoring rate. Across different court types, return scoring rate is consistently the most influential tactical performance indicator affecting match outcomes.更多还原