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亚洲地区全球海洋中心城市韧性评估及障碍因子分析

Assessment of the resilience and analysis of obstacle factors of Global Marine Center Cities in Asia

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【作者】 刘锴; 彭进;

【Author】 LIU Kai;PENG Jin;Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University;Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University;

【机构】 教育部人文社科重点研究基地辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院; 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心;

【摘要】 城市韧性对评估城市承受风险的能力和可持续发展水平具有重要作用。通过构建以经济、社会、基础设施、生态韧性为基础的全球海洋中心城市韧性发展评价指标体系,借助CRITIC-熵值法对2005-2019年东京、新加坡、釜山、香港、上海、广州、深圳、青岛、大连、厦门、宁波11个城市的韧性进行评估,并利用障碍度模型识别海洋中心城市韧性发展的主要障碍因子,基于评估结果探索中国海洋中心城市韧性提升的对策。研究发现:(1)海洋中心城市综合韧性呈现波动上升态势,经济、社会、基础设施韧性指数与综合韧性指数发展态势一致,但生态韧性则正好相反;城市间韧性分化明显,但差距在逐渐减小,亚洲3座样本城市韧性水平整体高于中国,但增速较慢,中外城市韧性水平的差距正逐渐减小,城市等级对于城市韧性水平作用显著,高等级的城市韧性水平往往较高;城市韧性系统内部均衡性不足,高韧性城市和低韧性城市分别有其优劣势。(2)海洋中心城市韧性主要受经济、基础设施、社会韧性的影响,海洋经济密度、人均GDP、水资源供应、城市交通网密度、千人病床数以及文旅指数是制约城市韧性的关键障碍因子。

【Abstract】 Urban resilience plays an important role in evaluating a city’s capacity to withstand risks and its level of sustainable development. This study, by constructing an evaluative index system for the resilience of the Global Marine Center Cities and employing The Entropy Weight and CRITIC method, assessed the resilience of eleven cities, namely Tokyo, Singapore, Busan, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Dalian, Xiamen and Ningbo. The assessment covered the period from 2005 to 2019 and focused on four key dimensions: the economy, society,infrastructure, and ecology. Furthermore, using the barrier degree model, the primary obstacles to resilience development in Global Marine Center Cities are identified, and strategies to enhance resilience in Chinese Global Marine Center Cities are explored based on these assessments. The results reveal that(1) the overall resilience of leading maritime cities displays a fluctuating upward trend, with economic, social, and infrastructure resilience indices moving in tandem with the comprehensive resilience index, while ecological resilience shows the opposite pattern; there is a clear differentiation in resilience among cities, though the gap is narrowing. The resilience levels of the three Asian sample cities are generally higher than those of Chinese cities, but their growth rate is slower. The gap in resilience levels between Chinese and foreign cities is decreasing, and city ranking significantly affects resilience levels, with higherranked cities typically exhibiting greater resilience. Additionally, there is a lack of balance within the urban resilience system, with high-resilience cities and low-resilience cities each having their strengths and weaknesses.(2) The resilience of Global Marine Center Cities is primarily influenced by their economic, infrastructure, and social resilience,with marine economic density, per capita GDP, water resource supply, urban transportation network density, hospital beds per thousand people, and cultural tourism index identified as key constraining factors.

【基金】 辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目[L22AJY008]
  • 【分类号】TU984.116;P74
  • 【下载频次】10
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