【摘要】 当今社会生产高度依赖电力的发展，停电事故会造成严重的经济损失。为有效评估停电对区域各产业部门造成的经济影响，从细分行业角度出发，提出了考虑行业用电特性以及产业关联影响的停电事故经济损失评估方法。采用表征行业用电特性的产电比法评估停电直接经济损失。由于停电事故的间接经济损失涉及到各行业部门之间的供需关系，采用反映行业间依赖关系的投入产出模型评估停电间接经济损失。以2014年石河子“7·09”停电事故和2008年温州“7·28”停电事故为例进行评估计算，验证了所提方法的可行性与合理性，并根据两地区域经济发展水平和产业分布结构的差异性，对比分析停电事故经济损失分布特性。评估结果表明，所建模型能有效评估不同区域停电事故经济损失，其经济损失分布与地区产业结构分布及投入产出结构密切相关。更多还原

【Abstract】 In contemporary society, production is highly dependent on the development of electricity and power outages may cause serious economic losses. In order to effectively evaluate the economic impact of power outages on various industrial sectors in the power outage areas, this paper proposed a power outage economic loss evaluation method from the perspective of segmented industries, taking into account the characteristics of industry electricity consumption and the impact of industry correlation. The electricity generation ratio method that characterizes the electricity consumption characteristics of the industry was used to evaluate the direct economic losses caused by power outages. Because the indirect economic losses caused by power outages involved the supply-demand relationship between various industrial sectors, an input-output model reflecting the interdependence between industries was adopted to evaluate the indirect economic losses caused by power outages. The feasibility and rationality of the proposed method were evaluated and calculated by taking the “7·09” power outage in Shihezi in 2014 and the “7·28” power outage in Wenzhou in 2008 as examples. The distribution characteristics of economic losses caused by power outages were compared and analyzed in accordance with the differences in regional economic development level and industrial distribution structure between the two regions. The evaluation results indicate that the constructed model can effectively evaluate the economic losses caused by power outages in different areas and the distribution of economic losses is closely related to the regional industrial distribution structure and input-output structure.更多还原