【摘要】 2017年台风“天鸽”在珠江口引发复合风暴洪水事件，对周边沿岸城市造成巨大破坏，成因涉及天文高潮、风暴增水、河流径流以及持续性降雨等多种因素。基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、Delft3D和HEC-RAS(Hydrologic Engineering Center′s River Analysis System)模型，构建大气-海洋-陆地复合驱动模型展开研究。结果表明：海洋驱动模拟在计算平均增水方面存在高达77.4%的低估值，多种驱动因素的相互作用加剧复合风暴洪水的危害；降雨引起的陆地汇流效应是导致珠江口淹没范围广、持续时间长的主要原因；天文高潮与风暴增水的叠加作用显著加剧珠江干流沿岸地区的淹没风险。复合风暴洪水的有效模拟对分析和理解此类极端气候事件具有重要的实践意义和应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2017, Typhoon Hato triggered a compound flood event at the Pearl River Estuary, causing significant damage to surrounding coastal cities. Multiple factors, such as astronomical tides, storm surge, river discharge, and persistent rainfall, were involved in the causes. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model was constructed based on the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model), Delft3D, and HEC-RAS(Hydrologic Engineering Center′s River Analysis System). The results reveal that the ocean-driven simulation had been underestimated by as much as 77.4% in terms of the average water level, with interactions among various driving factors exacerbating the hazards of compound flooding.The extensive inundation and prolonged duration in the Pearl River Estuary were identified to be mainly caused by the land runoff effects resulting from rainfall. The flooding risk along the main channel of the Pearl River is significantly increased by the combined effect of astronomical tides and storm surge. Effective simulation of compound floods is crucial for analyzing and understanding such extreme weather events, offering practical significance and application value.更多还原