【摘要】 分析黄河流域建筑业主要影响因素、科学测算未来碳排放趋势，是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要一环。选取黄河流域9个省(自治区)2005—2021年的面板数据，基于扩展的STIRPAT模型分析其影响因素，并建立预测模型对不同情景下的碳排放趋势进行分析。结果表明：人口总量、城镇化率、建筑业总产值、人均可支配收入和碳排放强度对碳排放增长起促进作用，而能源结构对碳排放增长起抑制作用；不同情景下碳排放存在差异，但都能在2030年实现碳达峰，其中保持人口、经济平稳发展但技术水平高速增长的情景碳减排效果最为显著，最有利于黄河流域绿色低碳发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analyzing the main influencing factors of the construction industry in the Yellow River Basin and scientifically predicting future carbon emission trends is an important part of achieving ecological protection and high-quality development in this region. The panel data of nine provinces(autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021 were selected to analyze the influencing factors based on the extended STIRPAT model, and the forecast models were established to analyze the carbon emission trends under various scenarios. The results show that the total population, urbanization rate, total output value of the construction industry, per capita disposable income, and carbon emission intensity promote the growth of carbon emissions. Conversely, the energy structure inhibits the growth of carbon emissions. Although carbon emissions vary across different scenarios, all scenarios indicate the attainment of carbon peak by 2030. Notably, the scenario of maintaining stable population and economic development together with rapid technological advancements has the most significant carbon reduction effect, which is most conducive to the green and low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin.更多还原