【摘要】 利用1980—2020年成都实况降水资料、ERA5再分析资料和台风路径资料，统计分析了该时段成都“台风影响型”区域暴雨事件。结果表明：（1）存在两种直接影响（南风急流和台风倒槽）和三种间接影响（西太平洋副热带高压摆动、增强低层风场和阻碍高原低值系统东移）暴雨概念模型。（2）模型中个例降水落区出现在成都西部的概率较大，其次是中部地区，东部地区概率较低，台风路径在降水落区出现在成都西部时多为西移路径和西北路径。（3）K指数、500 hPa与850 hPa假相当位温差值均对成都地区受台风影响的区域性暴雨天气过程预报有一定的指示作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using live precipitation data of Chengdu, ERA5 reanalysis data, and typhoon track data from 1980 to 2020, the regional heavy rain events in Chengdu that were influenced by typhoons were statistically analyzed. The results indicate that:(1) There are two direct influence conceptual models(southerly jet and typhoon inverted trough) and three indirect influence models(oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, enhancement of the low-level wind field, and blocking of the eastward movement of plateau low-pressure systems) for heavy rain.(2) In these models, the probability of precipitation occurring in western Chengdu is relatively high, followed by the central area, while the probability is lower in the eastern area. When precipitation occurs in western Chengdu, the associated typhoon tracks are mostly westward or northwestward.(3) Both the K-index and the difference in pseudo-equivalent potential temperature between500 hPa and 850 hPa show certain indicative value for forecasting regional heavy rain events in Chengdu influenced by typhoons.更多还原